The phosphorus cost of agricultural intensification in the tropics.

Agricultural intensification in the tropics is one way to meet rising global food demand in coming decades(1,2). Although this strategy can potentially spare land from conversion to agriculture(3), it relies on large material inputs. Here we quantify one such material cost, the phosphorus fertilizer required to intensify global crop production atop phosphorus-fixing soils and achieve yields similar to productive temperate agriculture. Phosphorus-fixing soils occur mainly in the tropics, and render added phosphorus less available to crops(4,5). We estimate that intensification of the 8-12% of global croplands overlying phosphorus-fixing soils in 2005 would require 1-4 Tg P yr(-1) to overcome phosphorus fixation, equivalent to 8-25% of global inorganic phosphorus fertilizer consumption that year. This imposed phosphorus 'tax' is in addition to phosphorus added to soils and subsequently harvested in crops, and doubles (2-7 Tg P yr(-1)) for scenarios of cropland extent in 2050(6). Our estimates are informed by local-, state- and national-scale investigations in Brazil, where, more than any other tropical country, low-yielding agriculture has been replaced by intensive production. In the 11 major Brazilian agricultural states, the surplus of added inorganic fertilizer phosphorus retained by soils post harvest is strongly correlated with the fraction of cropland overlying phosphorus-fixing soils (r(2) = 0.84, p < 0.001). Our interviews with 49 farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, which produces 8% of the world's soybeans mostly on phosphorus-fixing soils, suggest this phosphorus surplus is required even after three decades of high phosphorus inputs. Our findings in Brazil highlight the need for better understanding of long-term soil phosphorus fixation elsewhere in the tropics. Strategies beyond liming, which is currently widespread in Brazil, are needed to reduce phosphorus retention by phosphorus-fixing soils to better manage the Earth's finite phosphate rock supplies and move towards more sustainable agricultural production.