Sha Feng, Yip Paul S F, Law Yik Wa
Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Inj Prev. 2017 Feb;23(1):40-45. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042006. Epub 2016 Jun 16.
The study empirically quantifies the contributions of age composition and urbanisation to changes in the suicide rate in China over the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010.
A decompositional method was used to quantify the absolute and relative contributions of the age structure; the age-specific proportion of the urban population and the suicide rate of each age-specific, gender-specific and urban/rural cohort to the overall suicide rates in the two 10-year intervals.
In the period between 1990 and 2000, a significant decline in the suicide rate among younger age groups (especially young rural women) was identified as the main driving force of the downward trend in the overall suicide rate. In 2000-2010, the rate of decline in suicide was predominantly explained by the drop in the suicide rate among all age groups in rural areas, with the exception of those aged over 80. The positive impact of urbanisation on the decline of the suicide rate has gradually diminished relative to the earlier period.
As the positive impact of urbanisation on suicide rates is diminishing, further urbanisation and rapid change in society may induce stress and adjustment problems that are not conducive to the promotion of well-being. Furthermore, as China is facing the prospects of slower economic growth and a rapidly ageing population, suicides among older adults may also be elevated, particularly among those in rural areas with insufficient healthcare and social support. In order to maintain the decreasing trend of suicide in China, it is important for the Chinese government to pay more attention to the mental well-being of the population and to mitigate the stress of urban life and to provide timely support to older adults especially in rural areas.
本研究通过实证量化了1990 - 2000年和2000 - 2010年期间年龄构成和城市化对中国自杀率变化的贡献。
采用一种分解方法来量化年龄结构、城市人口的年龄别比例以及每个年龄别、性别别和城乡队列的自杀率对两个10年间隔期内总体自杀率的绝对和相对贡献。
在1990年至2000年期间，较年轻年龄组（尤其是年轻农村女性）自杀率的显著下降被确定为总体自杀率下降趋势的主要驱动力。在2000 - 2010年期间，自杀率下降主要归因于农村地区所有年龄组（80岁以上者除外）自杀率的下降。相对于早期，城市化对自杀率下降的积极影响逐渐减弱。
随着城市化对自杀率的积极影响逐渐减弱，进一步的城市化和社会的快速变化可能引发压力和适应问题，不利于促进幸福感。此外，由于中国面临经济增长放缓和人口迅速老龄化的前景，老年人自杀率也可能上升，特别是在医疗保健和社会支持不足的农村地区。为了保持中国自杀率的下降趋势，中国政府更加关注民众的心理健康、减轻城市生活压力并为特别是农村地区的老年人提供及时支持非常重要。
