Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
Graduate School of Public Health, Asian Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
Environ Int. 2016 Sep;94:489-494. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.06.007. Epub 2016 Jun 15.
Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks.
从环境和人类健康的角度理解全球气候变化的影响变得至关重要。特别是，已经进行了关于温度升高对未来死亡率的直接影响的研究。然而，这些研究很少考虑人口变化，尽管世界人口正在迅速老龄化，但以前的研究没有考虑到社会老龄化的影响。在这里，我们根据四个代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景（RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0 和 8.5）和三个生育情景（高、中、低），使用 HadGEM3-RA 模型，对韩国七个主要城市在气候和人口变化下到 2100 年的未来与温度相关的死亡率进行了预测；我们使用 HadGEM3-RA 模型，根据四个代表性浓度路径（RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0 和 8.5）和三种生育情景（高、中、低），对韩国七个主要城市在气候和人口变化下到 2100 年的未来与温度相关的死亡率进行了预测。结果表明，老年人群的死亡率显著增加，大大增加了未来的总体死亡率。在 2090 年代，与四个不同 RCP 情景和三个不同生育率变体下 1992-2010 年期间相比，韩国可能会经历与温度相关的死亡率增加四到六倍，而如果不考虑人口老龄化，预计死亡率仅增加 0.5 到 1.5 倍。因此，不考虑人口老龄化可能会大大低估温度风险。
