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如果将生存预测算法用于创伤质量改进项目的病例选择,那么它将错失显著的改进机会。

Survival prediction algorithms miss significant opportunities for improvement if used for case selection in trauma quality improvement programs.

作者信息

Heim Catherine, Cole Elaine, West Anita, Tai Nigel, Brohi Karim

机构信息

Department of Anaesthesiology CHUV, 1011 Lausanne, Switzerland.

Centre for Trauma Sciences, Blizard Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.

出版信息

Injury. 2016 Sep;47(9):1960-5. doi: 10.1016/j.injury.2016.05.042. Epub 2016 Jun 1.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Quality improvement (QI) programs have shown to reduce preventable mortality in trauma care. Detailed review of all trauma deaths is a time and resource consuming process and calculated probability of survival (Ps) has been proposed as audit filter. Review is limited on deaths that were 'expected to survive'. However no Ps-based algorithm has been validated and no study has examined elements of preventability associated with deaths classified as 'expected'. The objective of this study was to examine whether trauma performance review can be streamlined using existing mortality prediction tools without missing important areas for improvement.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of all trauma deaths reviewed by our trauma QI program. Deaths were classified into non-preventable, possibly preventable, probably preventable or preventable. Opportunities for improvement (OPIs) involve failure in the process of care and were classified into clinical and system deviations from standards of care. TRISS and PS were used for calculation of probability of survival. Peer-review charts were reviewed by a single investigator.

RESULTS

Over 8 years, 626 patients were included. One third showed elements of preventability and 4% were preventable. Preventability occurred across the entire range of the calculated Ps band. Limiting review to unexpected deaths would have missed over 50% of all preventability issues and a third of preventable deaths. 37% of patients showed opportunities for improvement (OPIs). Neither TRISS nor PS allowed for reliable identification of OPIs and limiting peer-review to patients with unexpected deaths would have missed close to 60% of all issues in care.

CONCLUSIONS

TRISS and PS fail to identify a significant proportion of avoidable deaths and miss important opportunities for process and system improvement. Based on this, all trauma deaths should be subjected to expert panel review in order to aim at a maximal output of performance improvement programs.

摘要

背景

质量改进(QI)项目已被证明可降低创伤护理中可预防的死亡率。详细审查所有创伤死亡病例是一个耗时且耗费资源的过程,有人提出将计算得出的生存概率(Ps)作为审核筛选指标。对于“预期能存活”的死亡病例,审查存在局限性。然而,尚无基于Ps的算法得到验证,也没有研究探讨与归类为“预期”死亡相关的可预防性因素。本研究的目的是检验能否使用现有的死亡率预测工具简化创伤绩效审查,同时又不遗漏重要的改进领域。

方法

我们对创伤QI项目审查的所有创伤死亡病例进行了回顾性研究。死亡病例被分为不可预防、可能可预防、很可能可预防或可预防。改进机会(OPIs)涉及护理过程中的失误,分为与护理标准的临床和系统偏差。使用TRISS和PS计算生存概率。由一名研究者审查同行评审图表。

结果

在8年期间,纳入了626例患者。三分之一的病例显示出可预防性因素,4%为可预防的。可预防性出现在计算得出的Ps范围的整个区间。将审查限于意外死亡会遗漏所有可预防性问题的50%以上以及三分之一的可预防死亡病例。37%的患者显示出改进机会(OPIs)。TRISS和PS都无法可靠地识别OPIs,将同行评审限于意外死亡患者会遗漏近60%的所有护理问题。

结论

TRISS和PS未能识别出很大比例的可避免死亡病例,且遗漏了过程和系统改进的重要机会。基于此,所有创伤死亡病例都应接受专家小组审查,以实现绩效改进项目的最大产出。

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