A comparison of single and multi-site BMC measurements for assessment of spine fracture probability.

In a prospective study of 699 women, 39 new spine fracture cases were observed during a mean follow-up of 3.6 yr. Spine fracture incidence was compared to initial bone mineral content (BMC) of the calcaneus, distal radius, proximal radius, and the lumbar spine. BMC at all four sites was significantly related to spine fracture incidence. Women at -1 s.d. for calcaneal BMC had a sevenfold greater probability of spine fracture than women at +1 s.d.; women at -2 s.d. had a 50-fold greater probability than women at +2 s.d., even after adjustment for the effects of age. Combinations of BMC at two sites further strengthened the relationship to spine fracture; the best two-site combination is calcaneus and distal radius BMC. Thus women can be categorized and stratified according to future fracture risk, and the selection of postmenopausal women for preventive treatments can be guided by measurements of BMC.