Sun Bruce Qiang, Zhang Jie
PACM & Department of Mathematics, State University of New York Buffalo State, Buffalo, NY.
Department of Sociology, Shandong University School of Public Health and the Center for Suicide Prevention Research, China, State University of New York Buffalo State, Buffalo, NY.
J Forensic Sci. 2016 Mar;61(2):345-351. doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.13033. Epub 2016 Feb 3.
For the effects of social integration on suicides, there have been different and even contradictive conclusions. In this study, the selected economic and social risks of suicide for different age groups and genders in the United Kingdom were identified and the effects were estimated by the multilevel time series analyses. To our knowledge, there exist no previous studies that estimated a dynamic model of suicides on the time series data together with multilevel analysis and autoregressive distributed lags. The investigation indicated that unemployment rate, inflation rate, and divorce rate are all significantly and positively related to the national suicide rates in the United Kingdom from 1981 to 2011. Furthermore, the suicide rates of almost all groups above 40 years are significantly associated with the risk factors of unemployment and inflation rate, in comparison with the younger groups.
关于社会融合对自杀的影响，存在不同甚至相互矛盾的结论。在本研究中，我们确定了英国不同年龄组和性别的自杀相关经济和社会风险因素，并通过多水平时间序列分析评估其影响。据我们所知，此前尚无研究结合多水平分析和自回归分布滞后，在时间序列数据上估计自杀的动态模型。调查表明，1981年至2011年期间，失业率、通货膨胀率和离婚率均与英国全国自杀率显著正相关。此外，与较年轻群体相比，几乎所有40岁以上群体的自杀率都与失业和通货膨胀率等风险因素显著相关。
