Li Ru-Qiang, Yuan Ge-Heng, Chen Ming, Shao Yi-Min, Zhu Sai-Nan, Zhang Jun-Qing, Guo Xiao-Hui
Department of Endocrinology, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing 100034; Department of Endocrinology, Tongzhou Xinhua Hospital, Beijing 101100, China.
Department of Endocrinology, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing 100034, China.
Chin Med J (Engl). 2016 Aug 5;129(15):1784-8. doi: 10.4103/0366-6999.186643.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of ultrasonic features in predicting the malignancy of thyroid nodules in a group of Chinese patients.
In all, 762 patients with thyroid nodules (424 malignant and 338 benign) underwent ultrasound (US) check and surgery between March 2011 and July 2014 at Peking University First Hospital were identified. Univariate and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of each US feature, and the accuracy of their combinations for prediction of malignancy.
Patients with malignant nodules were younger and without obvious risk history than those in the benign group (P < 0.001, P = 0.93). No individual US sign was fully predictive of a malignant lesion. The Youden indexes of irregular margins and hypoechogenicity were the first and second highest in all US features, which were 51.9% and 45.2%, respectively. The sensitivity of solid components (89.7%) and hypoechogenicity (89.2%) and the specificity of taller-than-wide shape (98.5%) and microcalcifications (90.6%) were the first and second highest in all US features. Intranodular flow on a color Doppler examination was a weak predictor of malignancy. Under ROC analysis excepting intranodular flow, the 95% confidence interval (CI) of areas under the curves of hypoechogenicity and irregular margins with any one of the US features were overlapped that of five-feature combinations (95% CI: 0.850-0.901).
We should be alert with taller-than-wide shape and microcalcifications. Intranodular flow was a weak predictor of malignancy. According to Youden indexes and ROC analysis, irregular margins and hypoechogenicity combined with solid component or taller-than-wide shapes or microcalcifications have a high predicative value for malignant thyroid nodules in Chinese patients.
本研究旨在评估超声特征对一组中国患者甲状腺结节恶性病变的预测效能。
共纳入2011年3月至2014年7月在北京大学第一医院接受超声检查及手术的762例甲状腺结节患者(424例为恶性,338例为良性)。进行单因素分析及受试者操作特征(ROC)分析,以计算各超声特征的敏感性、特异性、阴性及阳性预测值,以及它们联合预测恶性病变的准确性。
恶性结节患者比良性结节组患者年龄更小且无明显风险史(P < 0.001,P = 0.93)。没有单一超声征象能完全预测恶性病变。在所有超声特征中,边缘不规则及低回声的约登指数分别位列第一和第二,分别为51.9%和45.2%。实性成分(89.7%)和低回声(89.2%)的敏感性以及纵横比大于1(98.5%)和微小钙化(9L6%)的特异性在所有超声特征中分别位列第一和第二。彩色多普勒检查显示的结节内血流对恶性病变的预测能力较弱。在ROC分析中,除结节内血流外,低回声及边缘不规则与任何一项超声特征组合的曲线下面积的95%置信区间(CI)与五项特征联合的曲线下面积的95%CI重叠(95%CI:0.850 - 0.901)。
对于纵横比大于1及微小钙化应予以警惕。结节内血流对恶性病变的预测能力较弱。根据约登指数及ROC分析,边缘不规则及低回声联合实性成分、或纵横比大于1、或微小钙化对中国患者甲状腺恶性结节具有较高的预测价值。