Chirikos T N, Nestel G
Res Aging. 1989 Jun;11(2):174-205. doi: 10.1177/0164027589112003.
Whether the functional capacity of older men to remain at work differs by occupational assignment is an important consideration in judging policies designed to advance the age of retirement. A continuous-time Markov model of retirement disability, and death is used to test hypotheses about the influence of physically demanding work and impaired health on the ability to delay retirement. The model is estimated with panel data on a nationally representative sample of older American males. Physical job requirements and health conditions are found to affect the likelihood of retiring in a disabled state. However, cohort projections of the fractions of workers in physically demanding and sedentary job categories retiring nondisabled are very similar. Special policy consideration of workers in physically demanding occupations may therefore be questioned.
老年男性继续工作的功能能力是否因职业分配而异,这是判断旨在提高退休年龄的政策时的一个重要考量因素。一个关于退休、残疾和死亡的连续时间马尔可夫模型被用来检验关于体力要求高的工作和健康受损对延迟退休能力的影响的假设。该模型是用美国老年男性全国代表性样本的面板数据进行估计的。发现体力工作要求和健康状况会影响在残疾状态下退休的可能性。然而,体力要求高和久坐不动工作类别的工人非残疾退休比例的队列预测非常相似。因此,对从事体力要求高职业的工人给予特殊政策考虑可能会受到质疑。