Churcher Frances P, Mills Jeremy F, Forth Adelle E
Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
Psychol Serv. 2016 Aug;13(3):232-245. doi: 10.1037/ser0000073.
Over the past few decades many structured risk appraisal measures have been created to respond to this need. The Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) is a measure designed to integrate both an actuarial estimate of violence risk with critical risk management indicators. The current study examined interrater reliability and the predictive validity of the TTV in a sample of violent offenders (n = 120) over an average follow-up period of 17.75 years. The TTV was retrospectively scored and compared with the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Statistical Information of Recidivism Scale-Revised (SIR-R1), and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). Approximately 53% of the sample reoffended violently, with an overall recidivism rate of 74%. Although the VRAG was the strongest predictor of violent recidivism in the sample, the Actuarial Risk Estimates (ARE) scale of the TTV produced a small, significant effect. The Risk Management Indicators (RMI) produced nonsignificant area under the curve (AUC) values for all recidivism outcomes. Comparisons between measures using AUC values and Cox regression showed that there were no statistical differences in predictive validity. The results of this research will be used to inform the validation and reliability literature on the TTV, and will contribute to the overall risk assessment literature. (PsycINFO Database Record
在过去几十年里，人们创建了许多结构化风险评估措施来满足这一需求。两级暴力风险评估量表（TTV）是一种旨在将暴力风险的精算估计与关键风险管理指标相结合的评估工具。本研究在120名暴力罪犯样本中，平均随访期为17.75年，检验了TTV的评分者间信度和预测效度。对TTV进行回顾性评分，并与暴力风险评估指南（VRAG）、再犯统计信息量表修订版（SIR-R1）和精神病态检查表修订版（PCL-R）进行比较。样本中约53%的人再次实施暴力犯罪，总体再犯率为74%。虽然VRAG是样本中暴力再犯的最强预测指标，但TTV的精算风险估计（ARE）量表产生了微小但显著的效应。风险管理指标（RMI）对所有再犯结果的曲线下面积（AUC）值均无显著意义。使用AUC值和Cox回归进行的测量比较表明，预测效度没有统计学差异。本研究结果将用于为TTV的效度和信度文献提供信息，并将为整体风险评估文献做出贡献。（PsycINFO数据库记录）
