Early prediction of spontaneous hepatitis B virus e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is pivotal in the prevention of unnecessary drug prescription, corresponding financial burden, and adverse reactions. One hundred and thirteen chronic hepatitis B patients with HBeAg-positive in the immune active phase were followed up for about 1.5 years. Patients were classified into two groups: spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group (group A, n = 18) and non-spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group. Among the non-spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group, 35 patients were selected as controls (group B, n = 35). At week 12, there was a significant difference in hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) levels between the two groups (group A 4.32 ± 1.05 log  kU/ml, and group B 5.16 ± 0.53 log  kU/ml, P = 0.004), and this significance magnified at week 28. Only two variables, HBcrAg level and the reduction in the HBcrAg levels (ΔHBcrAg) at week 28 were enrolled, with the odds ratio of 4.19 and 0.21, respectively. The optimal cutoffs of HBcrAg levels and the ΔHBcrAg at week 28 were 4.90 and 2.00 log  kU/ml, respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of HBcrAg levels at week 28 were 73.9% and 96.7%, respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the ΔHBcrAg at week 28 were 76.2% and 93.8%, respectively. The measurement of HBcrAg is useful for monitoring the natural course of chronic hepatitis B virus infection. The dynamics of HBcrAg levels could accurately predict the spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion. J. Med. Virol. 89:463-468, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.