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利用地理信息系统(GIS)估算并绘制2015年洪都拉斯登革热和基孔肯雅热的发病率。

Estimating and mapping the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Honduras during 2015 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).

作者信息

Zambrano Lysien I, Sierra Manuel, Lara Bredy, Rodríguez-Núñez Iván, Medina Marco T, Lozada-Riascos Carlos O, Rodríguez-Morales Alfonso J

机构信息

Department of Morphological Sciences, School of Medical, Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Tegucigalpa, Honduras; Cardiovascular Division, Department of Physiology, Escola Paulista de Medicina (UNIFESP-EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

Information Management Unit, Hospital Escuela Universitario (HEU), Tegucigalpa, Honduras; Department of Public Health, School of Medical Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

出版信息

J Infect Public Health. 2017 Jul-Aug;10(4):446-456. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2016.08.003. Epub 2016 Aug 23.

Abstract

Geographical information systems (GIS) use for development of epidemiological maps in dengue has been extensively used, however not in other emerging arboviral diseases, nor in Central America. Surveillance cases data (2015) were used to estimate annual incidence rates of dengue and chikungunya (cases/100,000 pop) to develop the first maps in the departments and municipalities of Honduras. The GIS software used was Kosmo Desktop 3.0RC1. Four thematic maps were developed according departments, municipalities, diseases incidence rates. A total of 19,289 cases of dengue and 85,386 of chikungunya were reported (median, 726 cases/week for dengue and 1460 for chikungunya). Highest peaks were observed at weeks 25th and 27th, respectively. There was association between progression by weeks (p<0.0001). The cumulated crude national rate was estimated in 224.9 cases/100,000 pop for dengue and 995.6 for chikungunya. The incidence rates ratio between chikungunya and dengue is 4.42 (ranging in municipalities from 0.0 up to 893.0 [San Vicente Centenario]). Burden of both arboviral diseases is concentrated in capital Central District (>37%, both). Use of GIS-based epidemiological maps allow to guide decisions-taking for prevention and control of diseases that still represents significant issues in the region and the country, but also in emerging conditions.

摘要

地理信息系统(GIS)在登革热流行病学地图绘制中的应用已得到广泛使用,但在其他新兴虫媒病毒病中尚未应用,在中美洲也未应用。利用监测病例数据(2015年)估算登革热和基孔肯雅热的年发病率(病例数/10万人口),以绘制洪都拉斯各部门和各市的首张地图。所使用的GIS软件为Kosmo Desktop 3.0RC1。根据部门、市和疾病发病率绘制了四张专题地图。共报告了19289例登革热病例和85386例基孔肯雅热病例(中位数,登革热为每周726例,基孔肯雅热为每周1460例)。分别在第25周和第27周观察到最高峰值。按周进展之间存在关联(p<0.0001)。全国累计粗发病率估计登革热为224.9例/10万人口,基孔肯雅热为995.6例/10万人口。基孔肯雅热与登革热的发病率之比为4.42(各市范围从0.0至893.0[圣维森特百年纪念市])。两种虫媒病毒病的负担都集中在首都中央区(两者均>37%)。使用基于GIS的流行病学地图有助于指导针对疾病预防和控制的决策制定,这些疾病在该地区和该国仍然是重大问题,在新兴情况下也是如此。

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