Waterson Patrick, Jenkins Daniel P, Salmon Paul M, Underwood Peter
Human Factors and Complex Systems Group, Loughborough University Design School, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom.
DCA Design International Ltd., 19 Church Street, Warwick, CV34 4AB, United Kingdom.
Appl Ergon. 2017 Mar;59(Pt B):483-503. doi: 10.1016/j.apergo.2016.09.004. Epub 2016 Sep 19.
Throughout Jens Rasmussen's career there has been a continued emphasis on the development of methods, techniques and tools for accident analysis and investigation. In this paper we focus on the evolution and development of one specific example, namely Accimaps and their use for accident analysis. We describe the origins of Accimaps followed by a review of 27 studies which have applied and adapted Accimaps over the period 2000-2015 to a range of domains and types of accident. Aside from demonstrating the versatility and popularity of the method, part of the motivation for the review of the use of Accimaps is to address the question of what constitutes a sound, usable, valid and reliable approach to systemic accident analysis. The findings from the review demonstrate continuity with the work carried out by Rasmussen, as well as significant variation (e.g., changes to the Accimap, used of additional theoretical and practice-oriented perspectives on safety). We conclude the paper with some speculations regarding future extension and adaptation of the Accimap approach including the possibility of using hybrid models for accident analysis.
在延斯·拉斯穆森的整个职业生涯中,一直持续强调事故分析与调查方法、技术和工具的开发。在本文中,我们聚焦于一个具体实例的演变与发展,即事故地图(Accimaps)及其在事故分析中的应用。我们先描述事故地图的起源,接着回顾27项研究,这些研究在2000年至2015年期间将事故地图应用并改编于一系列领域和事故类型。除了展示该方法的通用性和受欢迎程度外,回顾事故地图使用情况的部分动机是解决一个问题,即什么构成了一种健全、可用、有效且可靠的系统事故分析方法。回顾结果表明与拉斯穆森所开展的工作具有连续性,同时也存在显著差异(例如,事故地图的变化、对安全采用更多理论和实践导向的视角)。我们在论文结尾对事故地图方法未来的扩展和改编进行了一些推测,包括使用混合模型进行事故分析的可能性。