Peng C Q, Cai J F, Yu S Y, Cao Z J, Liao Y X, Liu N, He L, Zhang L, Zheng J, Shi X M, Cheng J Q
Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2016 Oct 6;50(10):874-879. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2016.10.008.
To assess the association between the concentration of the air pollutant PM and daily outpatient visits for respiratory disease. All records of daily outpatient visits to three hospitals in Shenzhen from January 1 to December 31, 2013 were collected. Daily air pollution monitoring and meteorology data from the same period were also collected in Shenzhen. The data were analyzed using a semiparametric generalized additive model with Poisson distribution of time series analysis controlling for long-term and seasonal trends, flu, DOW, public holidays, and meteorological factors. The excess risk()of respiratory disease and its 95% value were calculated, along with the incremental increase of 10 μg/m in PM concentration. Number of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases totaled 1 428 672(daily range: 1 790-5 228). The annual average PM concentration was 40.2 μg/m(daily range: 7.2-137.1 μg/m). The lag1 factor had the most significant impact on the lag effect. We estimated that a 10 μ g/m increase in day-before PM concentration was associated with a 1.809%(95% : 1.709%-1.909%) of visits for respiratory disease. After controlling for other pollutants(NO, CO, and O), the effect remained stable. When NO, CO, and O were introduced separately, for every 10 μg/m rise in PM concentration, the excess risk of daily outpatient visits for respiratory disease was 1.814%(95% : 1.706%-1.923%), 2.780%(95% : 2.668%-2.892%), and 1.513%(95% : 1.403%-1.624%), respectively. With simultaneous control of NO and O, NO and CO, and CO and O, for every 10 μg/m rise in PM concentration, the excess risk of respiratory disease was 1.369%(95% : 1.242%-1.497%), 2.709%(95% : 2.590%-2.828%), and 2.577%(95% : 2.452%-2.702%), respectively. With simultaneous control of NO, CO, and O, for every 10 μg/m rise in PM concentration, the excess risk of respiratory disease was 2.370%(95% : 2.231%-2.509%). PM can increase the risk of outpatient visits for respiratory disease in Shenzhen.
评估空气污染物PM浓度与呼吸系统疾病每日门诊就诊量之间的关联。收集了2013年1月1日至12月31日深圳三家医院的所有每日门诊就诊记录。同时收集了深圳同期的每日空气污染监测数据和气象数据。采用半参数广义相加模型结合时间序列分析的泊松分布对数据进行分析，控制长期和季节性趋势、流感、星期几、公共假日和气象因素。计算呼吸系统疾病的超额风险（）及其95%可信区间，以及PM浓度每增加10μg/m³时的增量。呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊量总计1428672人次（每日范围：1790 - 5228人次）。PM年平均浓度为40.2μg/m³（每日范围：7.2 - 137.1μg/m³）。滞后1因素对滞后效应影响最为显著。我们估计，前一日PM浓度每增加10μg/m³，与呼吸系统疾病就诊量增加1.809%（95%可信区间：1.709% - 1.909%）相关。在控制其他污染物（NO、CO和O₃）后，该效应保持稳定。当分别引入NO、CO和O₃时，PM浓度每升高10μg/m³，呼吸系统疾病每日门诊就诊的超额风险分别为1.814%（95%可信区间：1.706% - 1.923%）、2.780%（95%可信区间：2.668% - 2.892%）和1.513%（95%可信区间：1.403% - 1.624%）。同时控制NO和O₃、NO和CO以及CO和O₃时，PM浓度每升高10μg/m³，呼吸系统疾病的超额风险分别为1.369%（95%可信区间：1.242% - 1.497%）、2.709%（95%可信区间：2.590% - 2.828%）和2.577%（95%可信区间：2.452% - 2.702%）。同时控制NO、CO和O₃时，PM浓度每升高10μg/m³，呼吸系统疾病的超额风险为2.370%（95%可信区间：2.231% - 2.509%）。PM可增加深圳呼吸系统疾病门诊就诊风险。
