Haydock L A J, Pomroy W E, Stevenson M A, Lawrence K E
Institute of Veterinary, Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Institute of Veterinary, Animal and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Vet Parasitol. 2016 Sep 15;228:52-59. doi: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2016.05.033. Epub 2016 Jun 4.
Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (p<0.001; R=0.71) was found indicating the model was effective for New Zealand. A linear regression for risk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (p<0.05) than all other regions with Northland ranked second highest. Notable predicted changes in F. hepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change.
在新西兰，肝片吸虫感染反刍动物被认为具有区域重要性，但除了传闻报告外，最近关于其流行率或严重程度的信息非常少。一般来说，与胃肠道线虫感染相比，它们被认为是次要的。利用分布在新西兰周围5公里网格上的虚拟气候站（n = 11491）的数据，采用度日增长模型来描述1972年至2012年肝吸虫感染风险，然后应用这些预测来估计2040年和2090年新西兰境内吸虫感染风险。度日增长模型根据1984年新西兰最近的感染调查进行了验证。发现1984年羔羊肝片吸虫流行率与感染风险之间存在强正线性关系（p<0.001；R = 0.71），表明该模型对新西兰有效。对新西兰14个地区1972 - 2012年风险值的线性回归未显示该时间段内感染风险有任何明显变化（p>0.05）。事后比较表明，发现西兰地区的风险显著高于所有其他地区（p<0.05），北地地区排名第二高。尽管检测到2040年和2090年肝片吸虫感染风险有显著预测变化，但它们在不同气候变化情景之间确实有所不同。感染风险平均百分比变化最高的是初始风险值较低的地区，如坎特伯雷和奥塔哥；在这些地区，预计2090年感染风险将分别平均上升186%和184%。尽管西兰地区的感染风险已经很高，但预计到2090年风险值将进一步上升76%。该模型确实显示一些地区变化不大，塔拉纳基预计感染风险仅会有非常小的增加，2040年和2090年预测平均变化分别为0%和29%。总体而言，这些结果表明新西兰养殖系统中肝片吸虫的重要性可能被低估，并且随着气候变化导致全球变暖，这种风险通常会增加。
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