Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
Department of Public Health Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2017 Dec 13;20(1):50-57. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntw264.
The majority of smokers do not intend to quit in the near term, making unmotivated smokers a key group to target in public health efforts. Although it is often assumed that continuing smokers will have stable rates of smoking over time, limited research has addressed this issue, particularly among smokers not seeking treatment. In the current study, the aims were to (1) characterize the trajectory of naturalistic smoking among unmotivated smokers and (2) examine relationships between naturalistic smoking trajectories and other smoking-related variables.
The study sample comprised 579 control-group (ie, untreated) smokers within a parent clinical trial, who completed a total of nine assessments over 1 year.
Trajectory modeling identified four smoking trajectory groups: stable (72%), shallow decreasers (20%), steep decreasers (5%), and increasers (3%). Membership in the decreasing groups was associated with higher motivation to quit, greater history of quit attempts, and higher cigarettes per day. Females were more likely to be in the increasing versus stable group.
Findings provide needed information on stability and change in cigarette consumption over the course of 1 year among an untreated sample of smokers and identified baseline sociodemographic and smoking-related predictors of smoking trajectory group. Refining understanding of these groups is critical in updating population-based tobacco policy modeling efforts and informing cessation induction efforts that capitalize on naturalistic changes in smoking rate over time.
In the current study, we found that approximately 25% of smokers who endorsed low quit motivation at baseline reduced their cigarette consumption over the course of a year, while 3% increased their cigarette consumption and the majority of smokers (72%) maintained a stable pattern. Refining understanding of smoking trajectories is critical in updating population-based tobacco policy modeling efforts and informing cessation induction efforts that capitalize on naturalistic changes in smoking rate over time.
大多数吸烟者近期内并不打算戒烟，因此未戒烟者是公共卫生工作的重点目标人群。尽管人们通常认为持续吸烟者的吸烟率会随时间保持稳定，但关于这个问题的研究有限，尤其是在那些未寻求治疗的吸烟者中。在当前的研究中，我们的目的是：（1）描述未戒烟者自然状态下吸烟的轨迹；（2）探讨自然状态下吸烟轨迹与其他吸烟相关变量之间的关系。
本研究样本包括一项父母临床研究中的 579 名对照组（即未治疗）吸烟者，他们在 1 年内共完成了 9 次评估。
轨迹建模确定了四种吸烟轨迹组：稳定组（72%）、浅度下降组（20%）、深度下降组（5%）和增长组（3%）。下降组的成员更有可能有戒烟的动力、有更多的戒烟尝试史和更高的每日吸烟量。女性更有可能属于增长组而不是稳定组。
研究结果提供了在未治疗的吸烟者样本中，1 年内吸烟量的稳定性和变化方面的必要信息，并确定了吸烟轨迹组的基线社会人口统计学和吸烟相关预测因素。深入了解这些群体对于更新基于人群的烟草政策建模工作以及为利用吸烟率随时间的自然变化而进行的戒烟诱导工作至关重要。
在目前的研究中，我们发现，大约 25%的基线戒烟动力低的吸烟者在一年内减少了吸烟量，而 3%的吸烟者增加了吸烟量，大多数吸烟者（72%）保持了稳定的吸烟模式。深入了解吸烟轨迹对于更新基于人群的烟草政策建模工作以及为利用吸烟率随时间的自然变化而进行的戒烟诱导工作至关重要。
