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法医从业者的似然比应该是多少?

What should a forensic practitioner's likelihood ratio be?

作者信息

Morrison Geoffrey Stewart, Enzinger Ewald

机构信息

Morrison & Enzinger, Independent Forensic Consultants, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada & Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Department of Linguistics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Morrison & Enzinger, Independent Forensic Consultants, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada & Corvallis, Oregon, USA.

出版信息

Sci Justice. 2016 Sep;56(5):374-379. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.05.007. Epub 2016 Jul 29.

Abstract

We argue that forensic practitioners should empirically assess and report the precision of their likelihood ratios. Once the practitioner has specified the prosecution and defence hypotheses they have adopted, including the relevant population they have adopted, and has specified the type of measurements they will make, their task is to empirically calculate an estimate of a likelihood ratio which has a true but unknown value. We explicitly reject the competing philosophical position that the forensic practitioner's likelihood ratio should be based on subjective personal probabilities. Estimates of true but unknown values are based on samples and are subject to sampling uncertainty, and it is standard practice to report the degree of precision of such estimates. We discuss the dangers of not reporting precision to the courts, and the problems with an alternative approach which instead reports a verbal expression corresponding to a pre-specified range of likelihood ratio values. Reporting precision as an interval requires an arbitrary choice of coverage, e.g., a 95% or a 99% credible interval. We outline a normative framework which a trier of fact could employ to make non-arbitrary use of the results of forensic practitioners' empirical calculations of likelihood ratios and their precision.

摘要

我们认为,法医从业者应通过实证评估并报告其似然比的精度。一旦从业者明确了他们所采用的控方和辩方假设,包括他们所采用的相关总体,并明确了他们将进行的测量类型,他们的任务就是通过实证计算似然比的估计值,而该似然比具有一个真实但未知的值。我们明确反对另一种哲学立场,即法医从业者的似然比应基于主观个人概率。对真实但未知值的估计基于样本,并且存在抽样不确定性,报告此类估计的精度程度是标准做法。我们讨论了不向法庭报告精度的风险,以及另一种替代方法的问题,该方法改为报告与预先指定的似然比值范围相对应的文字表述。将精度报告为一个区间需要对覆盖范围进行任意选择,例如95%或99%的可信区间。我们概述了一个规范框架,事实认定者可以采用该框架来非任意地使用法医从业者对似然比及其精度进行实证计算的结果。

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