Abdalla Safa, Ahmed Suad, Swareldahab Zeinab, Bhalla Kavi
Sudan Health Consultancy, Dublin, Ireland.
Sudan Federal Ministry of Health, Khartoum, Sudan.
Inj Prev. 2017 Jun;23(3):171-178. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042067. Epub 2016 Oct 11.
Sudan has been undergoing demographic and social changes that could have a tangible impact on population injury rates. However, reliable estimates of injury epidemiology are lacking. We aimed to estimate injury incidence and mortality in urban and rural Sudan, using existing data sources.
We used the 2008 national census mortality data with mortuary data to construct unintentional and intentional injury mortality estimates in urban and rural areas. We estimated incidence of non-fatal injuries using the Sudan Household Health Survey 2010. Uncertainty analysis was carried out to construct 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the final estimates.
Overall injury death rate was estimated at 109 (95% UI 83-142) per 100 000 per year, 94 (66-129) per 100 000 in urban populations and 117 (95% UI 86-157) per 100 000 in rural populations. Injuries accounted for 12% of all male deaths and 6% of all female deaths, but more than half of the deaths among young men aged 20-34 years. Urban injury rates were higher among males but lower among females than rural injury rates. Road traffic injuries were the major cause of fatal injury in urban Sudan, but other causes accounted for the majority of non-fatal injuries nationally.
Road traffic injuries should remain a priority for the country but better data are needed for rural Sudan. To that end, investment in existing data collection systems is essential. Our method can be applied in other countries with a similar data availability pattern.
苏丹一直在经历人口结构和社会变革，这可能对人口伤害率产生切实影响。然而，缺乏关于伤害流行病学的可靠估计。我们旨在利用现有数据源估计苏丹城乡地区的伤害发生率和死亡率。
我们将2008年全国人口普查死亡率数据与太平间数据相结合，以构建城乡地区意外伤害和故意伤害死亡率的估计值。我们使用2010年苏丹家庭健康调查来估计非致命伤害的发生率。进行了不确定性分析，以构建最终估计值的95%不确定性区间（UI）。
总体伤害死亡率估计为每年每10万人中有109例（95%UI 83 - 142），城市人口中为每10万人中有94例（66 - 129），农村人口中为每10万人中有117例（95%UI 86 - 157）。伤害占所有男性死亡人数的12%，占所有女性死亡人数的6%，但在20 - 34岁的年轻男性死亡人数中占一半以上。城市男性伤害率高于农村，但城市女性伤害率低于农村。道路交通伤害是苏丹城市致命伤害的主要原因，但在全国范围内，其他原因占非致命伤害的大多数。
道路交通伤害应仍是该国的优先事项，但苏丹农村地区需要更好的数据。为此，对现有数据收集系统进行投资至关重要。我们的方法可应用于其他具有类似数据可得模式的国家。
