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基于颅底测量研究提出用于估算婴儿骨骼遗骸年龄的新回归公式

Proposal of new regression formulae for the estimation of age in infant skeletal remains from the metric study of the pars basilaris.

作者信息

Irurita Olivares Javier, Alemán Aguilera Inmaculada

机构信息

Centro de Investigación, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Sede en Esmeraldas (PUCESE), Esmeraldas, Ecuador.

Laboratory of Anthropology, Department of Legal Medicine, Toxicology and Physical Anthropology, University of Granada, Avenida de la Investigación 11, Granada, 18071, Spain.

出版信息

Int J Legal Med. 2017 May;131(3):781-788. doi: 10.1007/s00414-016-1478-1. Epub 2016 Oct 27.

Abstract

In the context of physical and forensic anthropology, when a child's skeleton is damaged or in poor condition, which is common, many of the metric methods for the estimation of skeletal age cannot be used. In these circumstances, those more resistant bones, such as the pars basilaris, will be most useful. The aims of this study were to test existing methods for estimating skeletal age from the metric study of the pars basilaris and to propose new regression formulae. One hundred fourteen individuals aged between 5 months of gestation and 6 years were analyzed; seven measures were taken from each pars basilaris using a digital caliper. The chronological age was compared with the estimated age using the methods published by Fazekas and Kósa in 1978 and by Scheuer and MacLaughlin in 1994. New regression formulae are proposed, obtained by classical calibration, which include confidence intervals at 50 and 97.5 % to express the error. With both methods, significant differences were observed; the method of Fazekas and Kósa shows a tendency to underestimate the age, and the method of Scheuer and MacLaughlin tends to overestimate it. The proposed formulae represent a good tool for estimating age in many different contexts because they are relatively easy to apply, although other analysis systems, such as Bayesian approach or geometric morphometry, offer more robust and effective results.

摘要

在体质人类学和法医人类学领域,儿童骨骼受损或状况不佳的情况很常见,在这种情况下,许多用于估算骨骼年龄的测量方法都无法使用。在这些情形下,那些更具韧性的骨骼,比如颅底基底部,将最为有用。本研究的目的是检验通过颅底基底部的测量研究来估算骨骼年龄的现有方法,并提出新的回归公式。对114名年龄在妊娠5个月至6岁之间的个体进行了分析;使用数字卡尺从每个颅底基底部测量了七个指标。将实际年龄与使用法泽卡斯和科萨于1978年以及舍尔和麦克劳克林于1994年发表的方法估算出的年龄进行了比较。通过经典校准提出了新的回归公式,其中包括50%和97.5%的置信区间以表示误差。两种方法都观察到了显著差异;法泽卡斯和科萨的方法显示出低估年龄的趋势,而舍尔和麦克劳克林的方法则倾向于高估年龄。所提出的公式是在许多不同情况下估算年龄的良好工具,因为它们相对易于应用,尽管其他分析系统,如贝叶斯方法或几何形态测量法,能提供更可靠和有效的结果。

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