Verdecchia A, Capocaccia R, Egidi V, Golini A
Istituto Superiore di Sanita', Rome, Italy.
Stat Med. 1989 Feb;8(2):201-16. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780080207.
Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.
慢性退行性疾病传播的度量指标，如发病率和患病率，是流行病学家以及从事许多人类科学领域工作的其他人员的基本需求。从队列的角度推导了将慢性退行性疾病的死亡概率与发病率和生存概率相关联的方程。采用最大似然法来估计发病率作为与时间相关协变量的函数。当有死亡率数据的时间序列时，该模型可用于描述和分析发病率的水平和动态变化。针对意大利瓦雷泽省的肺癌和乳腺癌给出了一个试验性应用，该省可从伦巴第癌症登记处获得发病率数据。
