Department of Psychology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, Leeds, England.
Risk Anal. 2017 Apr;37(4):612-628. doi: 10.1111/risa.12660. Epub 2016 Nov 10.
Previous research suggests that the choice of graphical format for communicating risk information affects both understanding of the risk magnitude and the likelihood of acting to decrease risk. However, the mechanisms through which these effects work are poorly understood. To explore these mechanisms using a real-world scenario, we examined the relative impact of two graphical displays for depicting the risk of exposure to unexploded ammunition during potential land redevelopment. One display depicted only the foreground information graphically (a bar graph of the number of people harmed), and a second depicted the foreground and background graphically (a stacked bar graph representing both the number harmed and at risk). We presented 296 participants with either the foreground-only or the foreground and background graphical display and measured a broad set of outcome variables, examining (1) the graphical display effect on each of the outcome measures and (2) the pathways by which any display effects work to influence decision making. We found that the foreground-only graphical display increased perceived likelihood and experienced fear, which produced greater worry, which in turn increased risk aversion. In addition, a positive evaluation of the communication materials increased support for policies related to land redevelopment, whether those policies were risk taking or risk mitigating. Finally, the foreground-only graphical display decreased understanding of the risk magnitude, showing that approaches to accomplish one risk communication goal (promoting risk-averse decisions) may do so at the expense of another goal (increasing understanding).
先前的研究表明，用于传达风险信息的图形格式的选择会影响对风险幅度的理解和降低风险的可能性。然而，这些效果的作用机制还知之甚少。为了利用真实场景来探索这些机制，我们研究了两种用于描述潜在土地再开发过程中暴露于未爆炸弹药风险的图形显示方式的相对影响。一种显示方式仅以图形方式显示前景信息（伤害人数的条形图），另一种显示方式以图形方式显示前景和背景（代表伤害人数和风险的堆叠条形图）。我们向 296 名参与者展示了仅前景或前景和背景的图形显示，并测量了一系列广泛的结果变量，考察了（1）图形显示对每个结果变量的影响，以及（2）任何显示效果影响决策的途径。我们发现，仅前景的图形显示增加了感知到的可能性和经历的恐惧，从而导致更多的担忧，进而增加了风险规避。此外，对沟通材料的积极评价增加了对与土地再开发相关的政策的支持，无论这些政策是冒险还是减轻风险。最后，仅前景的图形显示降低了对风险幅度的理解，表明实现一个风险沟通目标（促进风险规避决策）的方法可能会以牺牲另一个目标（增加理解）为代价。
