Janssen Eric
a Department of General Population Surveys , French Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addictions , La Plaine Saint Denis , France.
Subst Use Misuse. 2017 Apr 16;52(5):683-687. doi: 10.1080/10826084.2016.1245340. Epub 2016 Dec 27.
An updated prevalence estimate for heroin users in France is lacking. Accurate figures are needed to estimate the potential need for treatment.
This research relies on a capture-recapture framework and, for the first time, makes use of individual data collected by a standardized survey conducted within treatment centers. Taking the hierarchical structure of data collection into consideration, a multilevel Zelterman regression model was used, thus enabling estimates at national level.
The number of heroin users was estimated to be 76,000, 95% CI = [68,000; 85,000] in 2009 (prevalence of 1.9‰ [1.7-2.1]), 101,000 in 2011, 95% CI = [66,000-137,000] (prevalence of 2.5‰ [1.6-3.4]), and 107,000 in 2013, 95% CI = [85,000-124,000] (prevalence of 2.6‰ [2.1-3.1]), with a 4:1 ratio of male:female. Less than one heroin users out of three was seen in treatment centers in 2013.
The rise in the number of heroin users is related to an increasing availability of heroin, increasing use in more remote areas, and providers targeting new types of users. The figures, however, should be completed with alternative estimates and enhance the need for a perennial monitoring.
法国缺乏对海洛因使用者最新患病率的估计。需要准确的数据来估计潜在的治疗需求。
本研究依赖于捕获再捕获框架，并且首次利用了在治疗中心内进行的标准化调查所收集的个体数据。考虑到数据收集的层次结构，使用了多级泽尔特曼回归模型，从而能够在国家层面进行估计。
估计2009年海洛因使用者人数为76,000人，95%置信区间 = [68,000; 85,000]（患病率为1.9‰ [1.7 - 2.1]），2011年为101,000人，95%置信区间 = [66,000 - 137,000]（患病率为2.5‰ [1.6 - 3.4]），2013年为107,000人，95%置信区间 = [85,000 - 124,000]（患病率为2.6‰ [2.1 - 3.1]），男女比例为4:1。2013年，每三名海洛因使用者中不到一人在治疗中心接受治疗。
海洛因使用者人数的增加与海洛因供应增加、在更偏远地区使用增加以及提供者针对新型使用者有关。然而，这些数据应通过其他估计进行补充，并加强长期监测的必要性。
