Bleiker K P, Van Hezewijk B H
Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5 (
Environ Entomol. 2016 Dec;45(6):1561-1567. doi: 10.1093/ee/nvw121. Epub 2016 Sep 20.
The ability to predict key phenological events, such as the timing of flight periods, is useful for the monitoring and management of insect pests. We used empirical data to describe the flight period of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, in its recently expanded range east of the Rocky Mountains in Canada and developed a degree-day model based on the number of trapped beetles. Data were collected over four degrees of latitude and six years. The main flight period, when the middle 70% of the total number of beetles were caught, started during the second or third week of July, lasted 26 d, and peaked within 2 wk of starting. The best model accounted for 89% of the variation in the data. Mountain pine beetle's flight tended to start later and be more contracted at higher latitudes. The synchrony of mountain pine beetle's flight period in the expanded range appears to be comparable to the limited reports from the historic range, although it may start earlier. This suggests that conditions in the new range are suitable for a coordinated dispersal flight, which is critical for the beetle's strategy of overwhelming tree defenses by attacking en masse. Forest managers can use the model to support operational decisions, e.g., when to impose hauling restrictions to reduce the risk of spread through the transport of infested material, or the time frame for control programs. Understanding the flight period may also improve our ability to assess the response of mountain pine beetle to novel and changing climates in the future.
预测关键物候事件（如飞行期的时间）的能力，对于害虫的监测和管理很有用。我们利用实证数据描述了加拿大落基山脉以东其最近扩展区域内山松甲虫（Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins）的飞行期，并基于诱捕到的甲虫数量建立了度日模型。数据在四个纬度和六年时间内收集。主要飞行期（捕获甲虫总数的中间70%时）始于7月的第二或第三周，持续26天，并在开始后的2周内达到峰值。最佳模型解释了数据中89%的变异。山松甲虫的飞行往往在较高纬度地区开始得更晚且更集中。在扩展区域内山松甲虫飞行期的同步性似乎与历史分布范围的有限报告相当，尽管可能开始得更早。这表明新区域的条件适合协调的扩散飞行，这对甲虫通过大规模攻击来压倒树木防御的策略至关重要。森林管理者可以使用该模型来支持运营决策，例如何时实施运输限制以降低通过运输受侵染材料传播的风险，或控制计划的时间框架。了解飞行期还可能提高我们未来评估山松甲虫对新的和不断变化的气候的反应的能力。
