Skovgaard-Olsen Niels, Singmann Henrik, Klauer Karl Christoph
Department of Philosophy, University of Konstanz.
Department of Psychology, Albert Ludwigs Universität Freiburg.
Cogn Sci. 2017 May;41 Suppl 5:1202-1215. doi: 10.1111/cogs.12462. Epub 2016 Dec 29.
This paper examines precursors and consequents of perceived relevance of a proposition A for a proposition C. In Experiment 1, we test Spohn's (2012) assumption that ∆P = P(C|A) - P(C|~A) is a good predictor of ratings of perceived relevance and reason relations, and we examine whether it is a better predictor than the difference measure (P(C|A) - P(C)). In Experiment 2, we examine the effects of relevance on probabilistic coherence in Cruz, Baratgin, Oaksford, and Over's (2015) uncertain "and-to-if" inferences. The results suggest that ∆P predicts perceived relevance and reason relations better than the difference measure and that participants are either less probabilistically coherent in "and-to-if" inferences than initially assumed or that they do not follow P(if A, then C) = P(C|A) ("the Equation"). Results are discussed in light of recent results suggesting that the Equation may not hold under conditions of irrelevance or negative relevance.
本文考察了命题A与命题C之间感知相关性的前因和后果。在实验1中，我们检验了斯波恩（2012）的假设，即∆P = P(C|A) - P(C|~A)是感知相关性和理由关系评分的良好预测指标，并且我们考察它是否比差异度量（P(C|A) - P(C)）是更好的预测指标。在实验2中，我们考察了相关性对克鲁兹、巴拉廷、奥克斯福德和奥弗（2015）不确定的“与转如果”推理中概率一致性的影响。结果表明，∆P比差异度量能更好地预测感知相关性和理由关系，并且参与者在“与转如果”推理中的概率一致性要么比最初假设的更低，要么他们不遵循P（如果A，那么C）= P(C|A)（“等式”）。鉴于最近的结果表明该等式在不相关或负相关条件下可能不成立，我们对结果进行了讨论。
