Hu Hao, Liu Rong, Long Xiao Ran, Han Xi Kun, Fan Jia, Yan Zhi Ping, Wang Jian Hua
Department of Interventional Radiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Medicine (Baltimore). 2016 Dec;95(52):e5517. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000005517.
This study sought to develop a reliable and easy-to-use scoring model to guide the decision to perform postsurgical adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) in patients with hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).The study included 235 consecutive patients with hepatitis B-related HCC undergoing PA-TACE at our medical center. Patients were assigned to 2 sets according to the PA-TACE date: initial (2005-2007; n = 130) and internal validation (2008-2009; n = 105) sets. With the aid of a Cox regression model, we developed a risk-scoring model from the independent predictive factors of our initial set designed as a guide for PA-TACE, and the performance of the model was validated with an internal set. External validation was also performed with an independent dataset (n = 84) to assess the discriminatory power of the scoring model.In the multivariate analysis, 4 risk factors (an increase in Child-Pugh score of at least 1 point, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid [HBV-DNA] level >10 IU/mL, tumor diameter ≥5 cm, and the presence of vascular invasion) were significantly associated with prognosis. These factors were incorporated into a novel clinicopathological scoring model (assessment for PA-TACE [APT] risk-scoring model) ranging from 0 to 8 that was correlated with prognosis. Different survival outcomes were identified in three groups (0-2 points, 3-6 points, and 7-8 points). The risk-scoring model was further confirmed with 2 independent sets.The novel APT risk-scoring model, merging 4 prognostic factors, may achieve an optimal postsurgical prediction of PA-TACE in HBV-related HCC. The risk for an individual patient with an APT score of ≥7.0 prior to the PA-TACE, who may not profit from further PA-TACE, can be determined, and this may lead to a more appropriate choice of treatment.
本研究旨在开发一种可靠且易于使用的评分模型,以指导对乙型肝炎相关肝细胞癌(HCC)患者进行术后辅助经动脉化疗栓塞术(PA-TACE)的决策。该研究纳入了在我们医疗中心连续接受PA-TACE治疗的235例乙型肝炎相关HCC患者。根据PA-TACE日期将患者分为两组:初始组(2005 - 2007年;n = 130)和内部验证组(2008 - 2009年;n = 105)。借助Cox回归模型,我们从初始组的独立预测因素中开发了一个风险评分模型,作为PA-TACE的指导,并用内部组验证了该模型的性能。还使用独立数据集(n = 84)进行了外部验证,以评估评分模型的鉴别能力。
在多变量分析中,4个风险因素(Child-Pugh评分至少增加1分、乙肝病毒脱氧核糖核酸[HBV-DNA]水平>10⁶ IU/mL、肿瘤直径≥5 cm以及存在血管侵犯)与预后显著相关。这些因素被纳入一个新的临床病理评分模型(PA-TACE评估[APT]风险评分模型),范围为0至8分,与预后相关。在三组(0 - 2分、3 - 6分和7 - 8分)中确定了不同的生存结果。该风险评分模型通过2个独立组进一步得到证实。
新的APT风险评分模型合并了4个预后因素,可能实现对HBV相关HCC患者PA-TACE的最佳术后预测。可以确定PA-TACE前APT评分≥7.0的个体患者可能无法从进一步的PA-TACE中获益,这可能导致更合适的治疗选择。