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自杀风险与经济危机:对米兰案例的探索性分析

Suicide Risk and the Economic Crisis: An Exploratory Analysis of the Case of Milan.

作者信息

Merzagora Isabella, Mugellini Giulia, Amadasi Alberto, Travaini Guido

机构信息

Sezione di Medicina Legale e delle Assicurazioni - Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche per la Salute - Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy.

Università della Svizzera Italiana, Institute for Public Communication, Lugano, Switzerland.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2016 Dec 29;11(12):e0166244. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166244. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

In the past five years, several scientific articles have claimed that the increase some countries have registered in suicide rates since 2008 is somehow related to the economic crisis. Other research has suggested that the impact of specific economic problems on the probability of suicidal behavior is often mediated by other individual-level factors, mainly psychological and physical, whose negative influence is exacerbated by reductions in the availability of health and social care during an economic crisis. On the basis of almost 1,000 cases of suicide collected by the Institute of Forensic Medicine in the province of Milan, this article aims at testing whether suicidal probability during an economic crisis is influenced by the interaction between an individual's employment status and the presence of psychological or physical disease. Using a binary logistic regression model, this article demonstrates that the likelihood of suicide during an economic crisis is three times higher for persons affected by a severe disease, either physical or psychological, than for people who are not affected (OR = 3.156; 95% CI = 1.066-9.339; p = 0.38). Neither employment status nor the interaction between employment status and health status contributed to the difference between the suicide rate before and during the economic crisis.

摘要

在过去五年中,多篇科学文章称,自2008年以来一些国家登记的自杀率上升在某种程度上与经济危机有关。其他研究表明,特定经济问题对自杀行为可能性的影响通常由其他个体层面的因素介导,主要是心理和身体方面的因素,在经济危机期间,健康和社会护理服务可及性的降低会加剧这些因素的负面影响。基于米兰省法医学研究所收集的近1000例自杀案例,本文旨在检验经济危机期间的自杀可能性是否受到个体就业状况与心理或身体疾病存在之间相互作用的影响。通过二元逻辑回归模型,本文表明,在经济危机期间,患有严重身体或心理疾病的人自杀的可能性比未受影响的人高出三倍(比值比=3.156;95%置信区间=1.066 - 9.339;p = 0.38)。就业状况以及就业状况与健康状况之间的相互作用均未导致经济危机之前和期间自杀率的差异。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e13d/5199046/b69cb694d219/pone.0166244.g001.jpg

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