College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, New Campus, Lahore 54000, Pakistan.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 15;580:468-481. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.155. Epub 2016 Dec 28.
Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change.
了解气候极值的频率、严重程度、损害和适应成本对于管理其后果至关重要。在旁遮普南部评估 PRECIS RCM 模型数据在 IPCC 情景下的结果表明，在 A2 情景下，月平均温度为 30°C，比 A1B 高 2.4°C，A1B 为 27.6°C。在 A2 情景下月平均降水范围在 12 到 15 毫米之间，而在 A1B 情景下，降水范围在 15 到 19 毫米之间。通过泊松分布对洪水和干旱进行频率建模的结果表明，未来几十年这些灾害的发生频率呈上升趋势，对农业和畜牧业、粮食安全、水资源、公共卫生和经济状况将造成严重影响。如果没有适应措施，在未来 40 年的时间里，预计频繁发生的洪灾所造成的累积损失将在 668 到 793 亿美元之间。根据 A2 情景下的干旱损害函数，计算得出 A2 情景下的干旱损失为 18%，A1B 情景下的干旱损失为 13.5%；还对农业和畜牧业部门的干旱损失进行了建模。如果没有适应措施，在 A2 情景下，未来 60 年的频繁干旱预计将造成 75 到 85 亿美元的损失，而在 A1B 情景下，损失将在 35 到 42 亿美元之间。极端事件的严重程度分析表明，如果适应措施不仅纳入政策，而且纳入综合发展框架，并按要求分配资金，情况将变得更糟。这项评估还强调了成本效益分析的结果，即适应选项（平均值和最差情况）对旁遮普南部洪水和干旱的效益。此外，该研究还强调了综合极端事件影响评估方法在进行脆弱性评估和支持适应决策方面的作用。本文旨在强调采用自下而上的方法应对气候变化的重要性。
