Predictors of late acute orthotopic heart transplant rejection.

To identify predictors of late acute rejection after orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT), 53 patients who received transplants between March 1984 and March 1987 and who survived at least 1 year postoperatively were followed up for 402-1,151 days (mean, 841 days). Fourteen patients experienced 22 moderate or severe rejection episodes more than 1 year after OHT (LR); 39 were nonrejectors (NR). Twelve of 14 (86%) LR and only 14 of 39 (36%) NR had two or more moderate or severe rejection episodes within the first year after OHT (p less than 0.001). The LR had significantly higher numbers of infections more than 1 year after OHT (2.0 vs. 0.9; p less than 0.05). Nine of 22 (40%) late acute rejection episodes followed within 1 month of infection. Human leukocyte antigen reactivity before OHT, follow-up hemodynamics, length of survival, incidence of diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease 1 year after OHT, mean cyclosporine levels, and mean daily prednisone doses were similar in LR and NR patients. We conclude that 1) OHT recipients with two or more moderate or severe rejection episodes in the first year after OHT are at higher risk of developing late acute rejection and may require closer long-term rejection surveillance and more aggressive maintenance immunosuppression and 2) the possible relation between infection and subsequent acute rejection episodes in OHT recipients requires further investigation.