生物学年龄作为预测韩国人17年生存率和死亡率的有用指标。
Biological age as a useful index to predict seventeen-year survival and mortality in Koreans.
作者信息
Yoo Jinho, Kim Yangseok, Cho Eo Rin, Jee Sun Ha
机构信息
Bioage Medical Research Institute, Bio-Age Inc., Seoul, Republic of Korea.
College of Oriental Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
出版信息
BMC Geriatr. 2017 Jan 5;17(1):7. doi: 10.1186/s12877-016-0407-y.
BACKGROUND
Many studies have been conducted to quantitatively estimate biological age using measurable biomarkers. Biological age should function as a valid proxy for aging, which is closely related with future work ability, frailty, physical fitness, and/or mortality. A validation study using cohort data found biological age to be a superior index for disease-related mortality than chronological age. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the validity of biological age as a useful index to predict a person's risk of death in the future.
METHODS
The data consists of 13,106 cases of death from 557,940 Koreans at 20-93 years old, surveyed from 1994 to 2011. Biological ages were computed using 15 biomarkers measured in general health check-ups using an algorithm based on principal component analysis. The influence of biological age on future mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression considering gender, chronological age, and event type.
RESULTS
In the living subjects, the average biological age was almost the same as the average chronological age. In the deceased, the biological age was larger than the chronological age: largest increment of biological age over chronological age was observed when their baseline chronological age was within 50-59 years. The death rate significantly increased as biological age became larger than chronological age (linear trend test, p value < 0.0001). The largest hazard ratio was observed in subjects whose baseline chronological age was within 50-59 years when the cause was death from non-cancerous diseases (HR = 1.30, 95% confidence intervals = 1.26 - 1.34). The survival probability, over the 17 year term of the study, was significantly decreased in the people whose biological age was larger than chronological age (log rank test, p value < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS
Biological age could be used to predict future risk of death, and its effect size varied according to gender, chronological age, and cause of death.
背景
已经开展了许多研究，通过可测量的生物标志物对生物学年龄进行定量估计。生物学年龄应作为衰老的有效替代指标，衰老与未来工作能力、身体虚弱、身体健康状况和/或死亡率密切相关。一项使用队列数据的验证研究发现，与实际年龄相比，生物学年龄是疾病相关死亡率的更优指标。本研究的目的是证明生物学年龄作为预测未来死亡风险的有用指标的有效性。
方法
数据包括1994年至2011年对557,940名20至93岁韩国人进行调查得到的13,106例死亡病例。使用在一般健康检查中测量的15种生物标志物，通过基于主成分分析的算法计算生物学年龄。使用Cox比例风险回归分析生物学年龄对未来死亡率的影响，同时考虑性别、实际年龄和事件类型。
结果
在存活者中，平均生物学年龄与平均实际年龄几乎相同。在死亡者中，生物学年龄大于实际年龄：当基线实际年龄在50至59岁之间时，观察到生物学年龄相对于实际年龄的最大增幅。当生物学年龄大于实际年龄时，死亡率显著增加（线性趋势检验，p值<0.0001）。当死因是非癌症疾病时，基线实际年龄在50至59岁之间的受试者观察到最大风险比（HR = 1.30，95%置信区间 = 1.26 - 1.34）。在生物学年龄大于实际年龄的人群中，在研究的17年期间，生存概率显著降低（对数秩检验，p值<0.001）。
结论
生物学年龄可用于预测未来死亡风险，其效应大小因性别、实际年龄和死因而异。
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