Reyes-Castro Pablo A, Harris Robin B, Brown Heidi E, Christopherson Gary L, Ernst Kacey C
Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
Acta Trop. 2017 Mar;167:174-182. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.01.001. Epub 2017 Jan 3.
Little is currently known about the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics in arid areas. This study assesses dengue outbreaks that occurred in two arid cities of Mexico, Hermosillo and Navojoa, located in northern state of Sonora. Laboratory confirmed dengue cases from Hermosillo (N=2730) and Navojoa (N=493) were geocoded by residence and assigned neighborhood-level characteristics from the 2010 Mexican census. Kernel density and Space-time cluster analysis was performed to detect high density areas and space-time clusters of dengue. Ordinary Least Square regression was used to assess the changing socioeconomic characteristics of cases over the course of the outbreaks. Both cities exhibited contiguous patterns of space-time clustering. Initial areas of dissemination were characterized in both cities by high population density, high percentage of occupied houses, and lack of healthcare. Future research and control efforts in these regions should consider these space-time and socioeconomic patterns.
目前对干旱地区登革热流行的时空动态知之甚少。本研究评估了墨西哥索诺拉州北部两个干旱城市埃莫西约和纳沃亚发生的登革热疫情。来自埃莫西约（N = 2730）和纳沃亚（N = 493）的实验室确诊登革热病例按居住地进行地理编码，并根据2010年墨西哥人口普查分配邻里层面的特征。进行核密度和时空聚类分析以检测登革热的高密度区域和时空聚类。采用普通最小二乘法回归评估疫情期间病例不断变化的社会经济特征。两个城市都呈现出时空聚类的连续模式。两个城市传播的初始区域的特征都是人口密度高、住房占有率高和缺乏医疗保健。这些地区未来的研究和防控工作应考虑这些时空和社会经济模式。
