Predictive capacity of a multimarker strategy to determine short-term mortality in patients attending a hospital emergency Department for acute heart failure. BIO-EAHFE study.

OBJECTIVE

A multimarker strategy may help determine the prognosis of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). The aim of this study was to evaluate the capacity of mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MRproADM), copeptin and interleukin-6 (IL-6) combined with conventional clinical and biochemical markers to predict the 30-day mortality of patients with AHF.

METHODS

We performed an observational, multicenter, prospective study of patients attended in the emergency department (ED) for AHF. We collected clinical and biochemical data as well as comorbidities and biomarker values. The endpoint variable was mortality at 7, 14, 30, 90 and 180days. The clinical model included: gender, age, blood pressure values, hemoglobin, sodium <135mmol/L and estimated glomerular filtration <60mL/min/1.73m2. We made receiver operating curves (ROC) curves, and areas under the curve (AUC) and survival analysis for each model and calculated the hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

A total of 547 individuals were included: 55.6% were women with a mean age of 79.9 (9.5) years. Copeptin alone showed greater discriminatory power for 30-mortality [AUC 0.70 (0.62-0.78)]. The AUC for 30-day mortality of the clinical model plus copeptin and NTproBNP was 0.75 (0.67-0.83), being better than the clinical model alone with 0.67 (0.58-0.76; p=0.19). The discriminatory power of the different biomarkers alone, in combination or together with the clinical model decreased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of a clinical model with copeptin and NTproBNP, which are available in the ED, is able to prognose early mortality in patients with an episode of AHF.