The Relationship between Historic Industrial Site Use and Environmental Contamination.

A methodology is presented for estimating the probability that particular classes of environmental contaminants will be of concern at brownfield redevelopment sites. These probabilities are predicted by a logistics model that is based on qualitative information about site history and status. This qualitative information comprises data that would be collected through a Phase I Environmental Site Assessment (ESA), including historic site use, current use and ownership status, and the nature of adjacent properties. The model is fit and demonstrated using a set of 59 former industrial sites in southwestern Pennsylvania that were collected from the files of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PADEP). Predictive models are developed for exceedances of contaminants as grouped into the following classes: metals, chlorinated hydrocarbons, fuel hydrocarbons, and PCBs. A procedure for estimating the parametric uncertainty of the model predictions is also illustrated. This method can serve as a starting point for more effective usage of existing Phase I ESA information and for evaluation of the benefit of obtaining additional site information. By increasing the decision-making value of existing (or inexpensive) data, this method can help to reduce the information asymmetry that may be an obstacle to redevelopment.