Saltzman Evan, Eibner Christine
Rand Health Q. 2015 Jul 15;5(1):7.
In this study, RAND Corporation researchers assess the expected change in enrollment and premiums in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA)-compliant individual market in federally facilitated marketplace (FFM) states if the U.S. Supreme Court decides to eliminate subsidies in FFM states. The analysis used the Comprehensive Assessment of Reform Efforts (COMPARE) microsimulation model, an economic model developed by RAND researchers, to assess the impact of proposed health reforms. The authors found that enrollment in the ACA-compliant individual market, including plans sold in the marketplaces and those sold outside of the marketplaces that comply with ACA regulations, would decline by 9.6 million, or 70 percent, in FFM states if subsidies were eliminated. They also found that unsubsidized premiums in the ACA-compliant individual market would increase 47 percent in FFM states. This corresponds to a $1,610 annual increase for a 40-year-old nonsmoker purchasing a silver plan.
在本研究中，兰德公司的研究人员评估了，如果美国最高法院决定取消联邦政府协助建立的医保市场（FFM）州符合《患者保护与平价医疗法案》（ACA）的个人医保市场中的参保人数和保费的预期变化。该分析使用了改革成效综合评估（COMPARE）微观模拟模型，这是一个由兰德公司研究人员开发的经济模型，用于评估拟议的医疗改革的影响。作者发现，如果取消补贴，在FFM州，符合ACA的个人医保市场的参保人数，包括在医保市场上销售的计划以及在市场外销售但符合ACA规定的计划，将减少960万，即70%。他们还发现，在FFM州，符合ACA的个人医保市场中无补贴的保费将上涨47%。这相当于一名购买白银计划的40岁不吸烟人士每年保费增加1610美元。
