Schwendicke Falk, Stolpe Michael
Department of Operative and Preventive Dentistry, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Aßmannshauser Str. 4-6, 14197, Berlin, Germany.
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105, Kiel, Germany.
BMC Public Health. 2017 Jan 17;17(1):88. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3938-4.
Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany.
The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups.
Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%).
An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.
饮用含糖饮料（SSB）会增加超重和肥胖的风险。对含糖饮料征税可减少每日能量消耗和体重。这项基于模型的研究评估了在德国背景下对含糖饮料征收20%销售税对超重和肥胖的影响。
对15 - 79岁的人群进行建模。假设税收通过需求弹性影响能量消耗，进而影响体重和体重指数（BMI）。进行基于模型的分析以估计税收对不同年龄、性别和收入群体BMI的影响。
实施20%的含糖饮料税主要降低了年轻人群体、男性和低收入人群的能量消耗。税收降低了较年轻群体的平均BMI，其中20 - 29岁人群下降幅度最大，而60岁及以上人群的影响最小。从绝对数量来看，估计征税可避免102.8万（相对减少3%）超重个体和47.9万肥胖个体（相对减少4%）。超重情况在20 - 29岁男性中下降最多（减少40.8万例/-22%），肥胖情况也是如此（减少20.4万例/-22%）。
对含糖饮料征税可能对超重和肥胖产生重大影响，这可能转化为发病率和死亡率的大幅降低。
