Bryant Alex K, Banegas Matthew P, Martinez Maria Elena, Mell Loren K, Murphy James D
Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California.
Kaiser Permanente Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2017 Jun;26(6):963-970. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-16-1023. Epub 2017 Jan 17.
Although the number of cancer survivors has increased substantially over the past several decades, the composition of survivors treated with radiotherapy is not well defined. Radiotherapy carries unique long-term toxicity risks for cancer survivors. This study describes the current estimates and future projections of the epidemiology of 5-year cancer survivors who receive radiation therapy. We used cancer incidence and survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) database linked to U.S. Census data to estimate the number of 5-year cancer survivors treated with radiation between 2000 and 2030. Future projections assumed continuing incidence and survival trends based on historical rates. In 2016, there were an estimated 3.05 million cancer survivors treated with radiation, accounting for 29% of all cancer survivors. The number of radiation-treated cancer survivors is projected to reach 3.38 million by 2020 and 4.17 million by 2030. In 2016, breast (40%) and prostate cancer (23%) composed the majority of radiation-treated survivors, followed by head and neck cancer (5.8%), lymphoma (5.6%), uterine (3.9%), and rectal cancer (3.8%). The percentage of 70 years or older radiation-treated survivors steadily increased between 2000 and 2030. The next several years are projected to see a large increase in the number of cancer survivors treated with radiation. This group of cancer survivors has unique needs given the long-term risks of radiation, and increased research and awareness are required to optimize health of this growing population. .
尽管在过去几十年中癌症幸存者的数量大幅增加，但接受放射治疗的幸存者构成尚不明确。放射治疗给癌症幸存者带来了独特的长期毒性风险。本研究描述了接受放射治疗的5年癌症幸存者的流行病学现状估计和未来预测。我们使用了与美国人口普查数据相关联的监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中的癌症发病率和生存数据，来估计2000年至2030年间接受放射治疗的5年癌症幸存者数量。未来预测基于历史发病率假设发病率和生存率持续趋势。2016年，估计有305万癌症幸存者接受了放射治疗，占所有癌症幸存者的29%。预计到2020年，接受放射治疗的癌症幸存者数量将达到338万，到2030年将达到417万。2016年，乳腺癌（40%）和前列腺癌（23%）占接受放射治疗幸存者的大多数，其次是头颈癌（5.8%）、淋巴瘤（5.6%）、子宫癌（3.9%）和直肠癌（3.8%）。2000年至2030年间，70岁及以上接受放射治疗的幸存者比例稳步上升。预计在接下来的几年里，接受放射治疗的癌症幸存者数量将大幅增加。鉴于放射治疗的长期风险，这群癌症幸存者有独特的需求，需要加强研究和提高认识，以优化这一不断增长人群的健康状况。
