Cha Seungman
a Graduate School of Public Health , Seoul National University , Seoul , Korea.
b Nationwide Schistosomiasis & STH Mapping Team of Sudan , Korea Association of Health Promotion , Seoul , Republic of Korea.
Glob Health Action. 2017;10(1):1267961. doi: 10.1080/16549716.2017.1267961.
As the Millennium Development Goals campaign (MDGs) came to a close, clear evidence was needed on the contribution of the worldwide MDG campaign.
We seek to determine the degree of difference in the reduction rate between the pre-MDG and MDG campaign periods and its statistical significance by region.
Unlike the prevailing studies that measured progress in 1990-2010, this study explores by percentage how much MDG progress has been achieved during the MDG campaign period and quantifies the impact of the MDG campaign on the maternal and under-five child mortality reduction during the MDG era by comparing observed values with counterfactual values estimated on the basis of the historical trend.
The low accomplishment of sub-Saharan Africa toward the MDG target mainly resulted from the debilitated progress of mortality reduction during 1990-2000, which was not related to the worldwide MDG campaign. In contrast, the other regions had already achieved substantial progress before the Millennium Declaration was proclaimed. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the most remarkable impact of the worldwide MDG campaign on maternal and child mortality reduction across all different measurements. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG campaign has advanced the progress of the declining maternal mortality ratio and under-five mortality rate, respectively, by 4.29 and 4.37 years.
Sub-Saharan African countries were frequently labeled as 'off-track', 'insufficient progress', or 'no progress' even though the greatest progress was achieved here during the worldwide MDG campaign period and the impact of the worldwide MDG campaign was most pronounced in this region in all respects. It is time to learn from the success stories of the sub-Saharan African countries. Erroneous and biased measurement should be avoided for the sustainable development goals to progress.
随着千年发展目标运动（MDGs）接近尾声，需要有明确证据证明全球千年发展目标运动的贡献。
我们试图确定千年发展目标运动前和运动期间降低率的差异程度及其按区域划分的统计显著性。
与以往衡量1990 - 2010年进展情况的研究不同，本研究通过百分比探讨了千年发展目标运动期间在千年发展目标方面取得了多少进展，并通过将观察值与根据历史趋势估算的反事实值进行比较，量化了千年发展目标运动对千年发展目标时代孕产妇和五岁以下儿童死亡率降低的影响。
撒哈拉以南非洲地区在千年发展目标方面成就较低，主要是因为1990 - 2000年期间死亡率降低进展乏力，这与全球千年发展目标运动无关。相比之下，其他地区在《千年宣言》发布之前就已经取得了重大进展。在所有不同衡量标准中，撒哈拉以南非洲国家在全球千年发展目标运动对孕产妇和儿童死亡率降低方面受到的影响最为显著。在撒哈拉以南非洲，千年发展目标运动分别使孕产妇死亡率和五岁以下儿童死亡率下降的进程提前了4.29年和4.37年。
尽管在全球千年发展目标运动期间撒哈拉以南非洲国家取得了最大进展，且全球千年发展目标运动在该地区各方面的影响最为显著，但这些国家却常常被贴上“偏离轨道”“进展不足”或“没有进展”的标签。是时候借鉴撒哈拉以南非洲国家的成功经验了。为了使可持续发展目标取得进展，应避免错误和有偏见的衡量。
