MOE Laboratory of Groundwater Circulation and Evolution, School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China.
MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Nat Commun. 2017 Feb 17;8:14590. doi: 10.1038/ncomms14590.
China has invested heavily on alternative energy, but the effectiveness of such energy sources at substituting the dominant coal-fired generation remains unknown. Here we analyse the displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity by alternative energy, primarily hydropower, and by trans-provincial imported electricity in China between 1995 and 2014 using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models. Nationwide, each unit of alternative energy displaces nearly one-quarter of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity, while each unit of imported electricity (regardless of the generation source) displaces ∼0.3 unit of fossil-fuel electricity generated locally. Results from the six regional grids indicate that significant displacement of fossil-fuel-generated electricity occurs once the share of alternative energy in the electricity supply mix exceeds ∼10%, which is accompanied by 10-50% rebound in the consumption of fossil-fuel-generated electricity. These findings indicate the need for a policy that integrates carbon taxation, alternative energy and energy efficiency to facilitate China's transition towards a low-carbon economy.
中国在替代能源方面投入巨大，但这些能源在替代主导的燃煤发电方面的效果仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用双向固定效应面板回归模型，分析了 1995 年至 2014 年间中国替代能源（主要是水电）和跨省进口电力对化石燃料发电的替代情况。在全国范围内，每单位替代能源可替代近四分之一单位的化石燃料发电，而每单位进口电力（无论发电来源如何）可替代约 0.3 单位本地化石燃料发电。六个区域电网的结果表明，一旦替代能源在电力供应组合中的份额超过 10%，就会发生显著的化石燃料发电替代，同时化石燃料发电的消费也会反弹 10-50%。这些发现表明，需要采取碳税、替代能源和能源效率相结合的政策，以促进中国向低碳经济的转型。
