Akçakaya H Reşit, Baur Bruno
Applied Biomathematics, 100 North Country Road, 1733, Setauket, NY, USA.
Zoology Institute, University of Basel, Rheinsprung 9, CH-4051, Basel, Switzerland.
Oecologia. 1996 Mar;105(4):475-483. doi: 10.1007/BF00330010.
We modeled the dynamics of a metapopulation of the land snail Arianta arbustorum in north-eastern Switzerland to investigate the effect of population subdivision on the persistence of a land snail metapopulation and to analyze the interaction between spatial factors, population subdivision, and catastrophes. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic, age-structured metapopulation model with field data from previous studies on the metapopulation in Switzerland and experimental and meteorological data. The model incorporated distance-dependent dispersal through stream banks, correlated environmental fluctuations, and catastrophes resulting from heavy rains. The results point to various complex interactions among factors involved in metapopulation dynamics and suggest that in some cases population subdivision may act to decrease threats from environmental fluctuations and catastrophes.
我们对瑞士东北部陆地蜗牛Arianta arbustorum集合种群的动态进行了建模,以研究种群细分对陆地蜗牛集合种群持久性的影响,并分析空间因素、种群细分和灾难之间的相互作用。我们利用先前关于瑞士该集合种群的研究中的实地数据以及实验和气象数据,开发了一个空间结构的、随机的、年龄结构的集合种群模型。该模型纳入了通过河岸的距离依赖性扩散、相关的环境波动以及暴雨导致的灾难。结果表明集合种群动态中涉及的各种因素之间存在复杂的相互作用,并表明在某些情况下,种群细分可能会降低环境波动和灾难带来的威胁。