Manly B F J
Biometrics Unit, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Oecologia. 1974 Dec;17(4):335-348. doi: 10.1007/BF00345751.
An electronic computer has been used to simulate the development and sampling of a number of insect populations containing individuals passing through stages (instar I, instar II, etc.). This was done in order to compare five methods for analysing sample stage-frequency data (Richards and Waloff, 1954; Richards et al., 1960; Dempster, 1961; Kiritani and Nakasuji, 1967; Manly, 1974a) under a variety of conditions. The simulation results suggest (i) that the method of Kiritani and Nakasuji should be used to estimate stage-specific survival rates whenever populations are sampled at equal intervals of time until almost all insects are dead, and (ii) that the method of Manly should be used if the sample times do not permit the use of Kiritani and Nakasuji's method or if it is desired to estimate the actual number of insects entering stages.
一台电子计算机已被用于模拟若干昆虫种群的发育和抽样情况,这些种群中的个体要经历不同阶段(一龄、二龄等)。这样做是为了比较在各种条件下分析样本阶段频率数据的五种方法(理查兹和瓦洛夫,1954年;理查兹等人,1960年;登普斯特,1961年;桐谷和中辻,1967年;曼利,1974a)。模拟结果表明:(i)只要在等时间间隔对种群进行抽样直至几乎所有昆虫死亡,就应使用桐谷和中辻的方法来估计特定阶段的存活率;(ii)如果抽样时间不允许使用桐谷和中辻的方法,或者如果希望估计进入各阶段的昆虫实际数量,则应使用曼利的方法。