Niederdeppe Jeff, Avery Rosemary, Miller Emily N
Department of Communication, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Department of Policy Analysis and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Prev Med. 2017 Jun;99:320-325. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.03.009. Epub 2017 Mar 18.
Widespread concern regarding the detrimental effects of excessive alcohol consumption (especially by minors) and associated social problems (particularly drunk driving) continues to exist among policymakers, law enforcement officers, and the general public. Alcohol consumption is a leading contributor to death from injuries, which itself is one of the main causes of death for people under 21years of age in the United States. This study examines the relationship between the volume and timing of alcohol-control public service announcements (PSAs) and rates of drunk-driving fatal accidents in the U.S. We estimate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models to predict rates of drunk-driving fatal accidents by state and month as a function of the volume of alcohol-control PSAs aired during the previous 8months. Models include controls for state anti-drunk-driving laws and regulations, state demographic characteristics, state taxes on alcohol, calendar year, and seasonality. Results indicate that higher volumes of anti-drunk driving PSAs airing in the preceding 2 to 3months are associated, albeit modest in magnitude, with reduced rates of drunk-driving fatal accidents. The regression coefficients are largest for adults (relative to underage drunk drivers) and when the PSAs air during prime time (relative to daytime or nighttime). We conclude that PSAs could play an important contributing role in reducing drunk-driving fatal accidents, although levels of exposure and potential effects likely remain modest due to reliance on donated air time. Well-funded anti-drunk driving campaigns could achieve higher levels of exposure and have a larger impact.
政策制定者、执法人员和普通公众一直广泛关注过度饮酒（尤其是未成年人饮酒）的有害影响以及相关的社会问题（特别是酒后驾车）。饮酒是导致受伤死亡的主要原因之一，而受伤本身是美国21岁以下人群的主要死因之一。本研究考察了酒精控制公益广告（PSA）的投放量和投放时间与美国酒后驾车致命事故发生率之间的关系。我们估计普通最小二乘法（OLS）回归模型，以预测各州和各月份酒后驾车致命事故的发生率，该发生率是前8个月播出的酒精控制PSA投放量的函数。模型包括对各州反酒后驾车法律法规、州人口特征、州酒精税、历年和季节性的控制。结果表明，在前两到三个月播出的反酒后驾车PSA投放量较高，尽管幅度不大，但与酒后驾车致命事故发生率的降低有关。对于成年人（相对于未成年酒后驾车者）以及PSA在黄金时段播出（相对于白天或夜间）时，回归系数最大。我们得出结论，公益广告在减少酒后驾车致命事故方面可以发挥重要的促进作用，尽管由于依赖捐赠的播出时间，曝光程度和潜在影响可能仍然有限。资金充足的反酒后驾车活动可以实现更高的曝光率，并产生更大的影响。
