一种用于按男男性行为者的艾滋病毒感染状况和种族估计进出旧金山的迁移模式的新型建模方法。
A Novel Modeling Approach for Estimating Patterns of Migration into and out of San Francisco by HIV Status and Race among Men Who Have Sex with Men.
作者信息
Hughes Alison J, Chen Yea-Hung, Scheer Susan, Raymond H Fisher
机构信息
San Francisco Department of Public Health, Van Ness Ave., Suite 500, San Francisco, CA, 94102, USA.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
出版信息
J Urban Health. 2017 Jun;94(3):350-363. doi: 10.1007/s11524-017-0145-2.
In the early 1980s, men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco were one of the first populations to be affected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, and they continue to bear a heavy HIV burden. Once a rapidly fatal disease, survival with HIV improved drastically following the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996. As a result, the ability of HIV-positive persons to move into and out of San Francisco has increased due to lengthened survival. Although there is a high level of migration among the general US population and among HIV-positive persons in San Francisco, in- and out-migration patterns of MSM in San Francisco have, to our knowledge, never been described. Understanding migration patterns by HIV serostatus is crucial in determining how migration could influence both HIV transmission dynamics and estimates of the HIV prevalence and incidence. In this article, we describe methods, results, and implications of a novel approach for indirect estimation of in- and out-migration patterns, and consequently population size, of MSM by HIV serostatus and race in San Francisco. The results suggest that the overall MSM population and all the MSM subpopulations studied decreased in size from 2006 to 2014. Further, there were differences in migration patterns by race and by HIV serostatus. The modeling methods outlined can be applied by others to determine how migration patterns contribute to HIV-positive population size and output from these models can be used in a transmission model to better understand how migration can impact HIV transmission.
20世纪80年代初,旧金山与男性发生性关系的男性(MSM)是最早受到人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)疫情影响的人群之一,他们至今仍承受着沉重的HIV负担。HIV曾经是一种迅速致命的疾病,1996年引入联合抗逆转录病毒疗法后,HIV感染者的生存率大幅提高。因此,由于生存期延长,HIV阳性者进出旧金山的能力有所增加。尽管美国普通人群以及旧金山的HIV阳性者之间存在高水平的迁移,但据我们所知,旧金山MSM的迁入和迁出模式从未被描述过。了解按HIV血清状态划分的迁移模式对于确定迁移如何影响HIV传播动态以及HIV流行率和发病率的估计至关重要。在本文中,我们描述了一种通过HIV血清状态和种族间接估计旧金山MSM迁入和迁出模式以及相应人口规模的新方法的方法、结果和意义。结果表明,从2006年到2014年,研究的总体MSM人群以及所有MSM亚人群的规模都有所下降。此外,按种族和HIV血清状态划分的迁移模式存在差异。本文概述的建模方法可供其他人应用,以确定迁移模式如何影响HIV阳性人群规模,这些模型的输出结果可用于传播模型,以更好地了解迁移如何影响HIV传播。