Greene Peter R, Greene Judith M
Department of Bioengineering, BGKT Consulting Ltd, Huntington, NY, 11743, USA.
BGKT Computer Sciences, Huntington, NY, USA.
Int Ophthalmol. 2018 Apr;38(2):869-874. doi: 10.1007/s10792-017-0510-x. Epub 2017 Apr 4.
Various high-percentage high-incidence medical conditions, acute or chronic, start at a particular age of onset t1 (years), accumulate or progress rapidly, with a system time constant t0 (years), typically from 1 week to 5 years, and then level off at a plateau level [Formula: see text], ultimately affecting 10-95% of the population. This report investigates the prevalence and incidence functions for myopia and high myopia as a function of age.
Fundamental prevalence versus time and incidence versus time results allow continuous prediction of myopia and high myopia population fractions as a function of age. This is a retrospective study. Nine reports are calculated with N = 444,600 subjects. There were no interventions other than usual regular eye examinations and subsequent indicated refraction change.
The main result is continuous prediction of myopia prevalence-time data along with incidence rate data (%/year), age of onset (years), system plateau level, and system time constant (years). These parameters apply to progressive myopia and high myopia (R < -6 D), useful over several decades.
The primary finding of this research is that the prevalence ratio of high myopes (R < -6.0 D) to common myopes is expected to increase from 15% entering college to 45% or more after college and graduate school. These statistics are particularly relevant to the many years of study required by M.D., Ph.D., and M.D./Ph.D. programs.
各种高百分比、高发病率的急慢性疾病，在特定的发病年龄t1（岁）开始，以系统时间常数t0（年）累积或快速进展，t0通常为1周-5年，然后在一个平台水平趋于平稳[公式：见正文]，最终影响10%-95%的人群。本报告研究近视和高度近视的患病率及发病率随年龄变化的函数。
基本患病率与时间以及发病率与时间的结果可连续预测近视和高度近视人群比例随年龄的变化。这是一项回顾性研究。对9份报告进行了计算，涉及N = 444,600名受试者。除了常规的定期眼部检查及随后指示的屈光变化外，没有其他干预措施。
主要结果是对近视患病率-时间数据以及发病率数据（%/年）、发病年龄（岁）、系统平台水平和系统时间常数（年）进行连续预测。这些参数适用于进行性近视和高度近视（R < -6 D），在几十年内都很有用。
本研究的主要发现是，高度近视者（R < -6.0 D）与普通近视者的患病率之比预计将从进入大学时的15%增加到大学及研究生毕业后的45%或更高。这些统计数据与医学博士、哲学博士以及医学博士/哲学博士项目所需的多年学习特别相关。
