Advanced myopia, prevalence and incidence analysis.

PURPOSE

Various high-percentage high-incidence medical conditions, acute or chronic, start at a particular age of onset t1 (years), accumulate or progress rapidly, with a system time constant t0 (years), typically from 1 week to 5 years, and then level off at a plateau level [Formula: see text], ultimately affecting 10-95% of the population. This report investigates the prevalence and incidence functions for myopia and high myopia as a function of age.

METHODS

Fundamental prevalence versus time and incidence versus time results allow continuous prediction of myopia and high myopia population fractions as a function of age. This is a retrospective study. Nine reports are calculated with N = 444,600 subjects. There were no interventions other than usual regular eye examinations and subsequent indicated refraction change.

RESULTS

The main result is continuous prediction of myopia prevalence-time data along with incidence rate data (%/year), age of onset (years), system plateau level, and system time constant (years). These parameters apply to progressive myopia and high myopia (R < -6 D), useful over several decades.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary finding of this research is that the prevalence ratio of high myopes (R < -6.0 D) to common myopes is expected to increase from 15% entering college to 45% or more after college and graduate school. These statistics are particularly relevant to the many years of study required by M.D., Ph.D., and M.D./Ph.D. programs.