Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 North Park Street, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA.
Ecology. 2017 Jul;98(7):1859-1868. doi: 10.1002/ecy.1853. Epub 2017 Jun 12.
Predicting species responses to perturbations is a fundamental challenge in ecology. Decision makers must often identify management perturbations that are the most likely to deliver a desirable management outcome despite incomplete information on the pattern and strength of food web links. Motivated by a current fishery decline in inland lakes of the Midwestern United States, we evaluate consistency of the responses of a target species (walleye [Sander vitreus]) to press perturbations. We represented food web uncertainty with 193 plausible topological models and applied four perturbations to each one. Frequently the direction of the focal predator response to the same perturbation is not consistent across food web topologies. Simultaneous application of management perturbations led to less consistent outcomes compared to the best single perturbation. However, direct manipulation of the adult focal predator produced a desirable outcome in 77% of 193 plausible topologies. Identifying perturbations that produce consistent outcomes in the face of food web uncertainty can have important implications for natural resource conservation and management efforts.
预测物种对干扰的反应是生态学中的一个基本挑战。决策者通常必须确定最有可能实现期望管理结果的管理干扰，尽管对食物网联系的模式和强度的信息不完整。受美国中西部内陆湖泊当前渔业衰退的推动，我们评估了目标物种（大眼梭鲈 [Sander vitreus]）对压力干扰的反应的一致性。我们用 193 种合理的拓扑模型来表示食物网的不确定性，并对每种模型应用了四种干扰。通常情况下，同种干扰下焦点捕食者的反应方向在食物网拓扑结构之间并不一致。与最佳单一干扰相比，同时应用管理干扰会导致结果不一致。然而，直接操纵成年焦点捕食者在 193 种合理拓扑结构中 77%的情况下产生了理想的结果。在面对食物网不确定性时，确定产生一致结果的干扰可能对自然资源保护和管理工作具有重要意义。
