Al Ramadhan Muhammad Ali
Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research Techno-Economics Division, Kuwait. Email:
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2017 Mar 1;18(3):803-809. doi: 10.22034/APJCP.2017.18.3.803.
Objective: To explore salient trends in incidence and mortality from breast cancer among Kuwaiti females and to quantify the number of years that could be saved if breast cancer deaths were eliminated. Methods: Appling life table technique, the paper constructs a bridged, multiple decrement and cancer-elimination life tables for Kuwaiti females. Data sources include Kuwait Cancer Control Center Registry along with vital statistics on mortality by age groups, nationality, and causes of death according to ICD-10 revision. Result: The study finds that, without interventions, nearly 2.5% of Kuwaiti female live births are expected to die from breast cancer. By contrast, if this disease were to be completely eradicated, Kuwaiti females are expected to gain half a year of life expectancy at birth. Likewise, a 10% reduction in deaths attributed to breast cancer would produce a gain of 11 days of life at age 30. The gain would augment to 51 days when death is reduced by 50%. Kuwaiti females aged 50 would add almost 5 months when breast cancer is eradicated, while a 20 percent reduction in breast cancer mortality would raise their life expectancy by 26 days. Conclusion: The results strongly support policy interventions of Kuwait’s government by instituting a well-documented public health policy for chronic diseases and mitigating the increase of cancer prevalence.
探讨科威特女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的显著趋势,并量化消除乳腺癌死亡可挽救的年数。方法:运用生命表技术,构建科威特女性的桥接、多重递减和癌症消除生命表。数据来源包括科威特癌症控制中心登记处以及按年龄组、国籍和根据国际疾病分类第10版修订本的死亡原因分类的死亡率统计数据。结果:研究发现,若无干预措施,预计近2.5%的科威特女性活产儿将死于乳腺癌。相比之下,如果这种疾病被完全根除,预计科威特女性出生时的预期寿命将增加半年。同样,乳腺癌死亡人数减少10%将使30岁时的预期寿命增加11天。当死亡人数减少50%时,增加天数将增至51天。50岁的科威特女性在乳腺癌被根除时预期寿命将增加近5个月,而乳腺癌死亡率降低20%将使其预期寿命提高26天。结论:研究结果有力支持科威特政府通过制定完善的慢性病公共卫生政策和缓解癌症患病率上升的政策干预措施。