Marrot Pascal, Garant Dany, Charmantier Anne
Département de Biologie, Faculté des Sciences, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada J1K 2R1
Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, UMR 5175, campus CNRS, 34293 Montpellier, CEDEX 5, France.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2017 Jun 19;372(1723). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0372.
Global climate warming results in an increase in mean temperatures and in the frequency of extreme climatic events (ECEs), which could both strongly impact ecosystems and populations. Most studies assessing the impact of global warming on ecosystems have focused on warming trends while neglecting ECEs. In particular, the effects of multiple ECEs on fitness, and their consequences for selection, are still missing. Here we explored the effects of daily extreme rainfalls, as well as the occurrence of extremely hot and cold days, on clutch size and laying date in a wild blue tit population () monitored over 25 years. During the nestling phase (8-15 days old), the number of fledglings in a brood was negatively correlated with extremely hot days. The presence of extremely hot days between days 8 and 15 was also associated with an increase in the strength of selection acting on laying date, independently of mean temperature trends during the same period: when 10% of broods in the population experienced this type of ECE, selection for earlier breeding increased by 39%. Our results represent a unique quantification of the impact of multiple ECEs on the fitness landscape and emphasize their role as climatic drivers of selection.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.
全球气候变暖导致平均气温上升以及极端气候事件（ECEs）频率增加，这两者都会对生态系统和种群产生强烈影响。大多数评估全球变暖对生态系统影响的研究都集中在变暖趋势上，而忽视了极端气候事件。特别是，多种极端气候事件对适合度的影响及其对选择的后果仍不明确。在这里，我们探讨了日极端降雨量以及极热和极冷天的出现对一个经过25年监测的野生蓝山雀种群（）窝卵数和产卵日期的影响。在雏鸟期（8 - 15日龄），一窝雏鸟的数量与极热天呈负相关。在第8天到第15天之间出现极热天也与作用于产卵日期的选择强度增加有关，这与同一时期的平均温度趋势无关：当种群中10%的巢经历这种类型的极端气候事件时，对更早繁殖的选择增加了39%。我们的研究结果对多种极端气候事件对适合度景观的影响进行了独特的量化，并强调了它们作为选择的气候驱动因素的作用。本文是主题为“对极端气候事件的行为、生态和进化反应”特刊的一部分。
