Woodman Joe P, Vriend Stefan J G, Adriaensen Frank, Álvarez Elena, Artemyev Alexander, Barba Emilio, Burgess Malcolm D, Caro Samuel P, Cauchard Laure, Charmantier Anne, Cole Ella F, Dingemanse Niels, Doligez Blandine, Eeva Tapio, Evans Simon R, Grégoire Arnaud, Lambrechts Marcel, Leivits Agu, Liker András, Matthysen Erik, Orell Markku, Park John S, Rytkönen Seppo, Senar Juan Carlos, Seress Gábor, Szulkin Marta, van Oers Kees, Vatka Emma, Visser Marcel E, Firth Josh A, Sheldon Ben C
Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Ecol Lett. 2025 Feb;28(2):e70079. doi: 10.1111/ele.70079.
Variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 4° W-33° E and 35°-65° N involving > 130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding demographic structure (subadult vs. adult breeders) and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distance-dependent synchrony of demographic structure, maintained at approximately 650 km. Despite covariation with demographic structure, we do not find evidence for environmental variables influencing the scale of synchrony, except for beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with demographic structure, influencing estimates of the environment's effect on synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in demographic structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.
年龄结构的变化会影响种群动态，但我们对种群间波动同步的空间尺度了解有限。我们利用32个大山雀种群，跨越西经4°至东经33°以及北纬35°至65°，涵盖67年间超过130,000只鸟类，量化了繁殖种群结构（亚成体与成年繁殖者）的空间同步性及其驱动因素。我们发现，更大的窝卵数、更寒冷的冬季以及更多的山毛榉果实产量会导致种群年轻化。我们报告了种群结构的距离依赖性同步性，这种同步性在约650公里的距离内得以维持。尽管与种群结构存在协变关系，但除了山毛榉结实外，我们没有发现环境变量影响同步尺度的证据。我们认为，局部生态和密度依赖动态会影响环境变化与种群结构的相互作用方式，进而影响对环境对同步性影响的估计。我们的分析证明了种群结构在大尺度上的同步性运作，这对种群中与年龄相关的种群统计学具有重要意义。
