是否接种疫苗？一项针对奥运会柔道运动员的研究。
Be seeded or not be seeded? A study with Olympic judo athletes.
作者信息
Guilheiro Leandro Marques, Franchini Emerson
机构信息
Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina, Tubarão, Brazil.
Martial Arts and Combat Sports Research Group, School of Physical Education and Sport, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
出版信息
J Exerc Rehabil. 2017 Apr 30;13(2):148-152. doi: 10.12965/jer.1734904.452. eCollection 2017 Apr.
The main purpose of the present study was to calculate the probability-based on a Bayesian approach-to win a medal in the Olympic Games given the athlete is seeded and to verify if the number one ranked athlete has any advantage compared to other seeded athletes concerning his/her chances to be Olympic champion. For this, data from athletes who took part in the London 2012 and Rio 2016 Olympic Games were considered. For males the probability of seeded athletes to win a medal was 41.1% and 42.9%, while for females it was 35.7% and 44.6% at London 2012 and Rio 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the probability of athletes ranked as number one to become Olympic champion among the seeded athletes was 19.5% and 36.8% for males and 32.3% and 36.8% for females in London 2012 and Rio 2016, respectively. Based on these results the cost-benefit of investing human and financial resources to qualify an athletes among the top eight competitors and his/her exposure to competitions-resulting in technical-tactical analysis of the opponent and higher risk of injury-should be carefully analyzed when determining the competition calendar to each athlete.
本研究的主要目的是基于贝叶斯方法计算给定运动员被种子排位时在奥运会上赢得奖牌的概率，并验证排名第一的运动员与其他种子运动员相比在成为奥运冠军的机会方面是否具有任何优势。为此，考虑了参加2012年伦敦奥运会和2016年里约奥运会的运动员的数据。对于男性，种子运动员在2012年伦敦奥运会和2016年里约奥运会上赢得奖牌的概率分别为41.1%和42.9%，而对于女性，这一概率分别为35.7%和44.6%。此外，在2012年伦敦奥运会和2016年里约奥运会上，排名第一的运动员在种子运动员中成为奥运冠军的概率，男性分别为19.5%和36.8%，女性分别为32.3%和36.8%。基于这些结果，在为每位运动员确定比赛日程时，应仔细分析投入人力和财力资源使运动员跻身前八名竞争者之列的成本效益，以及其参加比赛所带来的影响——包括对对手的技术战术分析和更高的受伤风险。
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