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对当前“p值争议”的批判性评估。

A critical evaluation of the current "p-value controversy".

作者信息

Wellek Stefan

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics, CIMH Mannheim, Mannheim Medical School of the University of Heidelberg, D-68159, Mannheim, J5, Germany.

Department of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Mainz, D-55101, Mainz, Germany.

出版信息

Biom J. 2017 Sep;59(5):854-872. doi: 10.1002/bimj.201700001. Epub 2017 May 15.


DOI:10.1002/bimj.201700001
PMID:28504870
Abstract

This article has been triggered by the initiative launched in March 2016 by the Board of Directors of the American Statistical Association (ASA) to counteract the current p-value focus of statistical research practices that allegedly "have contributed to a reproducibility crisis in science." It is pointed out that in the very wide field of statistics applied to medicine, many of the problems raised in the ASA statement are not as severe as in the areas the authors may have primarily in mind, although several of them are well-known experts in biostatistics and epidemiology. This is mainly due to the fact that a large proportion of medical research falls under the realm of a well developed body of regulatory rules banning the most frequently occurring misuses of p-values. Furthermore, it is argued that reducing the statistical hypotheses tests nowadays available to the class of procedures based on p-values calculated under a traditional one-point null hypothesis amounts to ignoring important developments having taken place and going on within the statistical sciences. Although hypotheses testing is still an indispensable part of the statistical methodology required in medical and other areas of empirical research, there is a large repertoire of methods based on different paradigms of inference that provide ample options for supplementing and enhancing the methods of data analysis blamed in the ASA statement for causing a crisis.

摘要

本文是由美国统计协会(ASA)董事会于2016年3月发起的一项倡议引发的,该倡议旨在应对当前统计研究实践中对p值的过度关注,据称这种关注“导致了科学领域的可重复性危机”。文章指出,在应用于医学的非常广泛的统计领域中,ASA声明中提出的许多问题并不像作者可能主要想到的领域那样严重,尽管其中有几位是生物统计学和流行病学方面的知名专家。这主要是因为很大一部分医学研究属于一套完善的监管规则范畴,这些规则禁止了最常见的p值滥用情况。此外,有人认为,将如今可用的统计假设检验减少到基于传统单点原假设计算的p值的程序类别,相当于忽视了统计科学领域已经发生和正在发生的重要发展。尽管假设检验仍然是医学和其他实证研究领域所需统计方法中不可或缺的一部分,但有大量基于不同推理范式的方法,为补充和改进被ASA声明指责导致危机的数据分析方法提供了丰富的选择。

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