Northern Medical Program, University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC), Prince George, British Columbia, Canada; Human Brain Laboratory, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Biostatistical Consulting Service, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
J Adolesc Health. 2017 Jul;61(1):24-31. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2017.03.005. Epub 2017 May 16.
Sexual-assault crimes, primarily perpetrated by males against female victims, impose a substantial burden on societies worldwide, especially on youth. Given that approximately half of all sexual assaults involve alcohol consumption by the perpetrator or victim, it is reasonable to expect that minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) restrictions might have an effect on sexual-assault patterns. Canadian MLDA laws are 18 years in Quebec, Alberta, and Manitoba (MLDA-18), and 19 years in the rest of the country (MLDA-19). The present study assesses whether MLDA laws might have an impact on sexual-assault crimes.
A regression-discontinuity design was applied to sexual-assault crime data (n = 12,980 incidents) from the national Uniform Crime Reporting survey 2009-2013, a population-level registry of all police-reported crimes in Canada. Uniform Crime Reporting data does not include an explicit alcohol involvement indicator.
Nationally, in comparison to males slightly younger than the MLDA, those just older had significant and immediate increases in sexual-assault perpetration of 31.9% (95% confidence interval: 8.7%-54.5%, p = .007). In MLDA-19 provinces, there was an immediate post-MLDA increase of 56.0% (95% confidence interval: 18.9%-90.8%, p = .004) in sexual-assault crimes by males just older than 19 years, whereas in MLDA-18 provinces no significant effect was found. For females, there was no evidence of MLDA effects on sexual-assault crimes.
Release from Canadian MLDA law restrictions was strongly associated with increases in sexual-assault perpetration by young men. These findings lend support to the potential effectiveness of population-level alcohol control policies for sexual-assault prevention among youth.
性侵犯犯罪主要由男性对女性受害者实施，给全世界的社会带来了巨大的负担，尤其是对年轻人。鉴于大约一半的性侵犯案件涉及犯罪者或受害者饮酒，因此可以合理地认为最低法定饮酒年龄（MLDA）限制可能会对性侵犯模式产生影响。加拿大的 MLDA 法律在魁北克、艾伯塔省和马尼托巴省为 18 岁（MLDA-18），在其他省份为 19 岁（MLDA-19）。本研究评估了 MLDA 法律是否可能对性侵犯犯罪产生影响。
本研究采用回归不连续性设计，对 2009 年至 2013 年全国统一犯罪报告调查中的性侵犯犯罪数据（n=12980 起事件）进行了分析，该调查是加拿大所有警方报告犯罪的人口水平登记处。统一犯罪报告数据不包括明确的酒精参与指标。
在全国范围内，与略低于 MLDA 的男性相比，刚过 MLDA 的男性实施性侵犯的比例显著增加了 31.9%（95%置信区间：8.7%-54.5%，p=0.007）。在 MLDA-19 省份，刚过 19 岁的男性性侵犯犯罪在 MLDA 之后立即增加了 56.0%（95%置信区间：18.9%-90.8%，p=0.004），而在 MLDA-18 省份则没有发现显著影响。对于女性，没有证据表明 MLDA 对性侵犯犯罪有影响。
从加拿大 MLDA 法律限制中释放出来与年轻男性性侵犯犯罪的增加密切相关。这些发现支持了针对年轻人的性侵犯预防的人口水平酒精控制政策的潜在有效性。
