Robartes Erin, Chen T Donna
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400742, Charlottesville, VA 22906, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2017 Jul;104:165-173. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.04.020. Epub 2017 May 20.
This paper examines bicyclist, automobile driver, vehicle, environmental, and roadway characteristics that influence cyclist injury severity in order to determine which factors should be addressed to mitigate the worst bicyclist injuries. An ordered probit model is used to examine single bicycle-single vehicle crashes from Virginia police crash report data from 2010 to 2014. Five injury severity levels are considered: fatalities, severe injuries, minor or possible injuries, no apparent injuries, and no injury. The results of this study most notably found automobile driver intoxication to increase the probability of a cyclist fatality six fold and double the risk of a severe injury, while bicyclist intoxication increases the probability of a fatality by 36.7% and doubles the probability of severe injury. Additionally, bicycle and automobile speeds, obscured automobile driver vision, specific vehicle body types (SUV, truck, and van), vertical roadway grades and horizontal curves elevate the probability of more severe bicyclist injuries. Model results encourage consideration of methods to reduce the impact of biking and driving while intoxicated such as analysis of bicycling under the influence laws, education of drunk driving impacts on bicyclists, and separation of vehicles and bicycles on the road. Additionally, the results encourage consideration of methods to improve visibility of bicyclists and expectation of their presence on the road.
本文研究了影响骑自行车者受伤严重程度的骑自行车者、汽车驾驶员、车辆、环境和道路特征,以确定应解决哪些因素来减轻最严重的骑自行车者伤害。使用有序概率模型,根据弗吉尼亚州警方2010年至2014年的撞车报告数据,对单车与单车碰撞事故进行研究。考虑了五个伤害严重程度级别:死亡、重伤、轻伤或可能受伤、无明显受伤和未受伤。本研究结果最显著地发现,汽车驾驶员醉酒会使骑自行车者死亡的概率增加六倍,并使重伤风险加倍,而骑自行车者醉酒会使死亡概率增加36.7%,并使重伤概率加倍。此外,自行车和汽车的速度、汽车驾驶员视线受阻、特定车身类型(运动型多用途汽车、卡车和货车)、垂直道路坡度和水平弯道会增加骑自行车者更严重受伤的概率。模型结果鼓励考虑采取方法来减少醉酒骑车和驾车的影响,例如分析酒后骑自行车相关法律、开展关于酒后驾车对骑自行车者影响的教育,以及在道路上实现车辆与自行车的分隔。此外,研究结果鼓励考虑采取方法来提高骑自行车者的可见度,并增强道路上其他使用者对他们存在的预期。