DMMT, University of Brescia, Viale Europa 11, 25123, Brescia, Italy.
CNR-IMATI, Via A. Corti 12, 20133, Milan, Italy.
Int J Biometeorol. 2017 Nov;61(11):1899-1911. doi: 10.1007/s00484-017-1376-3. Epub 2017 May 24.
In order to set priorities in management of costly and ecosystem-damaging species, policymakers and managers need accurate predictions not only about where a specific invader may establish but also about its potential abundance at different geographical scales. This is because density or biomass per unit area of an invasive species is a key predictor of the magnitude of environmental and economic impact in the invaded habitat. Here, we present a physiologically based demographic model describing and explaining the population dynamics of a widespread freshwater invader, the golden apple snail Pomacea canaliculata, which is causing severe environmental and economic impacts in invaded wetlands and rice fields in Southeastern Asia and has also been introduced to North America and Europe. The model is based on bio-demographic functions for mortality, development and fecundity rates that are driven by water temperature for the aquatic stages (juveniles and adults) and by air temperature for the aerial egg masses. Our model has been validated against data on the current distribution in South America and Japan, and produced consistent and realistic patterns of reproduction, growth, maturation and mortality under different scenarios in accordance to what is known from real P. canaliculata populations in different regions and climates. The model further shows that P. canaliculata will use two different reproductive strategies (semelparity and iteroparity) within the potential area of establishment, a plasticity that may explain the high invasiveness of this species across a wide range of habitats with different climates. Our results also suggest that densities, and thus the magnitude of environmental and agricultural damage, will be largely different in locations with distinct climatic regimes within the potential area of establishment. We suggest that physiologically based demographic modelling of invasive species will become a valuable tool for invasive species managers.
为了在管理昂贵且对生态系统有害的物种方面确定优先事项，政策制定者和管理者不仅需要准确预测特定入侵物种可能建立的地点，还需要预测其在不同地理尺度上的潜在丰度。这是因为入侵物种每单位面积的密度或生物量是预测入侵栖息地环境和经济影响程度的关键指标。在这里，我们提出了一个基于生理学的种群动态模型，用于描述和解释广泛分布的淡水入侵物种——福寿螺（Pomacea canaliculata）的种群动态，这种物种在东南亚的湿地和稻田中造成了严重的环境和经济影响，并且已经被引入北美和欧洲。该模型基于死亡率、发育率和生殖率的生物人口统计学功能，这些功能受水生阶段（幼体和成体）水温以及空气温度驱动。我们的模型已经过验证，与南美洲和日本的当前分布数据相符，并根据不同地区和气候的真实福寿螺种群的了解，在不同情景下产生了一致且现实的繁殖、生长、成熟和死亡率模式。该模型还表明，福寿螺将在建立的潜在区域内使用两种不同的繁殖策略（一次性繁殖和多次繁殖），这种可塑性可能解释了该物种在具有不同气候的广泛栖息地中的高入侵性。我们的研究结果还表明，在建立的潜在区域内具有不同气候制度的地点，其密度，因此环境和农业破坏的程度，将有很大差异。我们建议，基于生理学的入侵物种种群动态模型将成为入侵物种管理者的一种有价值的工具。
